Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Name: Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? — implied probability history
License: https://vultax.com/legal/terms

Resolved

No, settled Jun 19, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$5.8M

Resolved

Settled

Jun 19, 2026 UTC

Positions left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Indigo Signal 2966	No	866.67K	0.0%	$0
AslanTrader	Yes	386.17K	5.3%	$19.9K
Plush-Sousaphone	Yes	381.18K	5.2%	$19.15K
trader49	Yes	269.94K	4.6%	$12.29K
Blinds	Yes	192.18K	1.6%	$2.89K
AckersJ	Yes	184.29K	0.6%	$1.05K
lolz	Yes	142.86K	0.6%	$827.54
Late-Apartment	Yes	71.16K	4.6%	$3.14K
VICTORMELDREW	Yes	69.14K	5.1%	$3.42K
Burdensome-Prow	Yes	64.57K	1.0%	$614.82	Jun 18, 5:34 PM UTC
Axxel123	Yes	60.39K	1.9%	$1.11K
donanon	Yes	50.54K	5.3%	$2.61K
tjlpea	Yes	50.11K	5.1%	$2.57K
petewpw	Yes	45.96K	2.6%	$1.16K
Difficult-Cause	Yes	44.03K	3.7%	$1.57K
neutralwave23	Yes	42.66K	2.8%	$1.14K	Jun 18, 6:16 PM UTC
SumaNonyo	Yes	36.59K	3.9%	$1.38K
Generous-Tabernacle	Yes	35.86K	2.1%	$711.86
Spoilerke	Yes	35.43K	1.1%	$385.61
Immaterial-Bourgeoisie-Historian	Yes	33.09K	0.5%	$165.42	Jun 18, 9:54 PM UTC
CrystalSurfer	Yes	31.5K	1.9%	$581.56
moggersmog	Yes	30.42K	1.6%	$478.48
Greg192012	Yes	28.87K	4.5%	$1.25K	Jun 18, 6:17 PM UTC
Tired-Employ	Yes	26.51K	0.9%	$230.96	Jun 18, 9:00 PM UTC
Malienglez71	Yes	25.99K	0.6%	$156.34
g0ldenberg	Yes	25.01K	0.6%	$149.99	Jun 18, 3:54 PM UTC
Utter-Stamina-Preference	Yes	24.97K	2.7%	$652.95
Hana1234	Yes	24.86K	2.5%	$621.49
Fearless-Flax	Yes	24.34K	0.9%	$201.37
Poontanggang	Yes	22.12K	2.3%	$499.96
Jamesy19	Yes	21.37K	1.4%	$293.15
E88i	Yes	20.91K	0.5%	$98.14
Adventurous-Ottoman	Yes	19.78K	1.6%	$296.66
incredibu11	Yes	19.36K	8.0%	$1.5K
blocksplained	Yes	17.33K	4.2%	$708.24
Dirkdiggler88	Yes	16.87K	5.9%	$955.99
Tinto	Yes	16.33K	5.1%	$799.98
Violet-Id-Accusation	Yes	15.46K	1.3%	$188.96
Gruesome-Handgun	Yes	15.25K	0.5%	$74.99	Jun 19, 12:35 AM UTC
markgwalsh	Yes	15.11K	1.5%	$213.06
2222CP	Yes	15.04K	4.0%	$585.51
zvezdogled	Yes	14.34K	1.2%	$171.9
Irresponsible-Seaweed	Yes	13.78K	0.6%	$83.88
Topg2837	Yes	13.71K	0.6%	$77.13	Jun 18, 7:45 PM UTC
Squeaky-Wreck	Yes	13.4K	3.9%	$499.89
dipaloka	Yes	12.98K	0.9%	$116.78
Cobalt Pioneer 8BFF	Yes	12.95K	1.0%	$126.98
Lolita2026	Yes	12.91K	1.8%	$228.03
Random123456789	Yes	12.15K	0.7%	$77.7	Jun 18, 10:24 PM UTC
Villainous-Smell	Yes	12K	0.5%	$60
WickRick	Yes	10.19K	1.2%	$121.59
ERUCha	Yes	9.62K	1.0%	$96.23
mjsmith1246	Yes	9.54K	0.9%	$85.15
CSaundy	Yes	9.07K	1.8%	$155.83	Jun 18, 10:48 PM UTC
Thoir	Yes	8.85K	3.7%	$318.95
Amber Sphinx 47BD	Yes	8.84K	5.8%	$493.51
Glistening-Spit	Yes	8.79K	8.7%	$738.15
Awkward-Company	Yes	8.46K	0.6%	$49.7	Jun 18, 3:25 PM UTC
131071	Yes	8.01K	2.6%	$201.31
tardoid	Yes	8K	2.8%	$212.49	Jun 18, 9:54 PM UTC
superhood	Yes	7.64K	5.6%	$397.98
Emotional-Reindeer	Yes	7.61K	3.9%	$288.03
Same-Morbidity	Yes	7.2K	2.0%	$136.57
Hungrybadger	Yes	6.9K	7.4%	$498.44
Icarus565	Yes	6.6K	1.6%	$99.99
Tigresx	Yes	6.17K	1.0%	$60
raknor1	Yes	5.19K	7.6%	$382.46
gerbilaurochs	Yes	4.96K	4.4%	$209.99
BTFish-758	Yes	4.92K	2.5%	$122.96
anon4729474	Yes	4.85K	0.5%	$26.09
electrical	Yes	4.76K	1.2%	$57.15
chimpfighter	Yes	4.18K	7.1%	$292.94
kryptonite888	Yes	4K	2.8%	$108.02
matty981	Yes	4K	0.5%	$20	Jun 18, 9:05 PM UTC
joeisnotgamblingtoday	Yes	4K	1.4%	$55.17
tim6025	Yes	3.77K	0.6%	$20.6	Jun 18, 3:26 PM UTC
Agitated-Beanstalk-Coat	Yes	3.73K	1.3%	$45.75
Creamy-Historian	Yes	3.64K	3.1%	$108.39
Ultimate-Diabetes	Yes	3.59K	0.7%	$25.08
tunaYLXMin7SQMnp	Yes	3.44K	4.1%	$137.42
Bobillion	Yes	3.33K	0.6%	$20	Jun 18, 6:43 PM UTC
epimethius	Yes	3.3K	6.1%	$201.3
luckycat7	Yes	3.23K	5.8%	$181.49
makeraustralia	Yes	3.03K	2.3%	$69.15
Outstanding-Stance	Yes	2.89K	2.0%	$55.41
BigXur	Yes	2.86K	0.5%	$14.28
miserableorangutan	Yes	2.8K	2.6%	$70
ginkoman	Yes	2.75K	7.5%	$200
Lunar Tide D8DD	Yes	2.67K	0.6%	$16	Jun 18, 5:06 PM UTC
king.under.the.mountain	Yes	2.65K	1.4%	$35
PrincePiero	Yes	2.63K	0.7%	$16.98
cornball9522	Yes	2.61K	1.2%	$30
kiko1	Yes	2.54K	1.9%	$47
Jade Falcon 2704	Yes	2.51K	1.5%	$38.37
Aromatic-Garage	Yes	2.5K	0.5%	$12.5
0x9A69	Yes	2.45K	2.6%	$61.99
billybob182	Yes	2.4K	1.3%	$30
ggggggggg44444	Yes	2.37K	0.8%	$18.92
Valyza	Yes	2.34K	1.4%	$31	Jun 18, 11:10 PM UTC
kjgfdkgf	Yes	2.09K	1.0%	$20
Swift Meteor 48D0	Yes	2.06K	2.5%	$50
Echelonprt	Yes	1.99K	7.0%	$137.59
Jealous-Mileage	Yes	1.82K	1.1%	$18.5
Tmt-107	Yes	1.79K	1.0%	$16.67	Jun 18, 9:11 PM UTC
Kingfish58	Yes	1.72K	1.1%	$18.94
Wiry-Accelerator	Yes	1.67K	0.9%	$15
Small-Alb	Yes	1.66K	1.1%	$18.05
e46m3	Yes	1.66K	3.0%	$50.17
cosieman	Yes	1.62K	1.8%	$28.12
xlefgerx	Yes	1.6K	2.9%	$45.89
Holmgang	Yes	1.6K	5.2%	$79.96
siffy	Yes	1.54K	0.3%	$4	Jun 19, 1:25 AM UTC
tddhfhdghgh	Yes	1.54K	6.2%	$95.5
HumanGrowthHormone	Yes	1.5K	0.5%	$8	Jun 18, 3:38 PM UTC
cJNYm15w9	Yes	1.48K	7.0%	$100
Ripto	Yes	1.46K	4.4%	$62.01
Helixturbo	Yes	1.44K	7.2%	$100
temotull	Yes	1.43K	1.5%	$20
Dragonpunch12	Yes	1.43K	3.9%	$53.04
Totwotomorrow	Yes	1.29K	1.6%	$19.72
tyrkir	Yes	1.29K	2.0%	$25
KrystofKrejpsky	Yes	1.25K	0.8%	$10
VertigoRS2	Yes	1.23K	2.1%	$24.94
blaitsam	Yes	1.17K	0.7%	$7.61	Jun 18, 8:04 PM UTC
HappyFunTimeLarry	Yes	1.14K	2.3%	$25
Misty Oracle 1D32	Yes	1.11K	1.6%	$16.66
Saus8ges	Yes	1.08K	5.0%	$51.62
Old-Cape	Yes	1.07K	1.5%	$15
Corny-Transition	Yes	1.03K	0.5%	$5	Jun 18, 3:07 PM UTC
calark	Yes	1.01K	5.3%	$51.41
matwils	Yes	1.01K	8.2%	$79.71
Cylindrical-Emphasis	Yes	1K	0.4%	$4	Jun 18, 2:40 PM UTC
Zeldar155	Yes	996.56	2.5%	$24
Pitiful-Ephyra	Yes	988	0.5%	$4.94
Super-Calendar-Submitter	Yes	973.64	1.1%	$10.71
Stimulating-Honor	Yes	858.73	0.9%	$7.89
Early-Configuration	Yes	855.58	4.6%	$37.61
Safe-Boyhood	Yes	828.76	5.0%	$40
TKG123	Yes	800.22	2.6%	$20
krychek	Yes	784	0.5%	$3.92
GENE1ZA	Yes	705.09	7.0%	$47.92
1TP10021	Yes	700.26	0.9%	$5.9
AmorGus	Yes	679.07	5.0%	$32.41
scotchegg	Yes	649.16	6.7%	$41.64
Unaware-Sparerib	Yes	645.87	1.6%	$10
Wilhelm	Yes	636.36	1.1%	$7
thrilledpigman	Yes	609.76	4.3%	$25
Turbulent-Charm	Yes	608.92	10.2%	$60
SK11111	Yes	600	1.7%	$9.6
rudydaninja	Yes	589.61	2.6%	$15
Ringed-Push	Yes	574.91	4.5%	$25
Triangular-Chip-Centurion	Yes	549.21	6.3%	$33.46
rdmn	Yes	549.13	7.1%	$37.91
skogstokig	Yes	529.09	5.7%	$29
Ridgy	Yes	510.2	5.3%	$25
Fanta-lemon	Yes	510.08	4.7%	$23
alexaverroes	Yes	500	2.1%	$10
That-Soybean	Yes	466.17	1.6%	$7.09
Thebadgergoat	Yes	416.67	2.5%	$10
Droogg	Yes	407.33	4.3%	$17
Slow-Container	Yes	400	0.5%	$2
Possible-Boyhood	Yes	385.18	5.4%	$20
Mostweakestniga	Yes	384.62	1.4%	$5
Banksymoon	Yes	384.62	2.7%	$10
Innocent-Downgrade	Yes	379.75	8.2%	$30
Truthy	Yes	370.37	2.8%	$10
odinsbadeye	Yes	357.14	1.5%	$5
six-seven67	Yes	351.32	4.7%	$16.4
olipooooooo	Yes	343.64	0.9%	$2.75
cry.eth2	Yes	337.36	3.0%	$10.22
JB5333	Yes	333.33	7.8%	$25
xddBusinesss	Yes	317.96	1.7%	$5.16
simplystupid188	Yes	297.19	0.9%	$2.63
kekus-praeclarus	Yes	289.39	6.8%	$19.1
invincibu11	Yes	281.91	6.9%	$18.79
Feliciase	Yes	273.31	0.8%	$2.11	Jun 18, 7:26 PM UTC
That-NightSkye	Yes	269.42	7.7%	$20
Scotttte	Yes	255.56	0.8%	$2	Jun 18, 7:16 PM UTC
csfghx	Yes	255.56	0.8%	$2	Jun 18, 7:26 PM UTC
Reliccce	Yes	255.56	0.8%	$2	Jun 18, 7:21 PM UTC
Aggravating-Excuse	Yes	253.16	8.2%	$20
iol	Yes	250.01	0.4%	$1	Jun 18, 7:42 PM UTC
timemoon	Yes	250	0.4%	$1	Jun 19, 12:14 AM UTC
Maxmin	Yes	250	0.4%	$1	Jun 19, 12:13 AM UTC
asw301	Yes	238.1	4.4%	$10
BigBoiBettin	Yes	236.47	8.8%	$20
uhkil	Yes	233.34	0.9%	$2	Jun 18, 7:25 PM UTC
kuodsking	Yes	227.62	9.1%	$20
Arcbird	Yes	227.27	2.3%	$5
albertobet	Yes	212.77	4.9%	$10
ufyjgkughoih	No	210.62	95.1%	$200
ObtuseTriangle	Yes	204.08	5.1%	$10
Quiet Raven E061	Yes	203.27	5.1%	$9.96
doypiedoyp	Yes	200	0.5%	$1	Jun 18, 10:43 PM UTC
WeatherTwo	Yes	200	0.5%	$1	Jun 18, 7:26 PM UTC
Wooopsiees	Yes	200	0.5%	$1	Jun 18, 11:21 PM UTC
Solar Harbor 68D4	Yes	191.76	7.3%	$13
YeetFleetGaming	Yes	188.68	5.5%	$10
thornydjames	Yes	187.72	8.1%	$14.73
dksl	Yes	185.19	5.6%	$10
noobSboon	Yes	184.78	4.6%	$8.18
Red-Wagon	Yes	178.89	0.9%	$1.61
insaneevilgoblin	Yes	178.57	5.8%	$10
Offbeat-Washbasin	Yes	165.55	7.3%	$11.64
Hateful-Crest	Yes	163.12	6.4%	$10
Interesting-Ignorance	Yes	160.87	2.8%	$4.39
Pigeon25	Yes	159.99	8.6%	$13.28
Indigo Ledger 1081	Yes	159.69	6.5%	$10
Frigid-Closing	Yes	158.22	4.7%	$7.12
SmartTradingBlueprint	Yes	148.15	5.6%	$8
Coddi.wompling	Yes	130.43	2.4%	$3
Sparse-Chem-Lyrics	Yes	128.04	5.8%	$7.17
Vigorous-Extreme	Yes	117.65	5.3%	$6
Blaring-Neologism	Yes	112	0.9%	$1.01
top100cashout	Yes	104.48	5.9%	$6
onionpro	Yes	103.93	6.4%	$6.4
Fantastic-Wool	Yes	102.04	5.1%	$5
Quaint-Outlaw	Yes	100.27	3.1%	$3
CryptoHope	Yes	100	1.0%	$1
Jade Orbit 5C89	Yes	100	0.1%	$0.1
Elated-Broiler	Yes	91.96	5.6%	$5
uuto	Yes	90.91	1.1%	$1
Konrik03	Yes	90.91	1.1%	$1
faloonzer	Yes	90.66	5.1%	$4.44
Horrible-Pheasant	Yes	85.7	8.5%	$7
cty	Yes	83.33	1.2%	$1
somclaren	Yes	78	1.0%	$0.78
idkuser28	Yes	76.92	1.4%	$1
oopl	Yes	71.44	1.5%	$1
kkddr	Yes	71.43	1.5%	$1
alexK3nn	Yes	71.43	1.5%	$1
moonshinewaves	Yes	71.43	7.3%	$5
okex	Yes	66.68	1.6%	$1
cil	Yes	66.67	1.6%	$1
Open-Push	Yes	66.67	1.6%	$1
2424521	Yes	66.67	1.6%	$1
xiguaoo	Yes	66.67	1.6%	$1
Grown-Ruffle	Yes	66.67	1.6%	$1
Tart-Pounding	Yes	66.67	1.6%	$1
ooosld	Yes	66.67	1.6%	$1
hhgl	Yes	62.51	1.7%	$1
iiootry	Yes	62.51	1.7%	$1
gpty	Yes	62.51	1.7%	$1
qianbaba	Yes	62.5	1.7%	$1
quewens	Yes	62.5	1.7%	$1
bingo0	Yes	62.5	1.7%	$1
hygjkuf	Yes	55.56	1.9%	$1
Gabrielleth	Yes	55.56	1.9%	$1
zjing	Yes	55.56	1.9%	$1
fghddfs	Yes	52.64	2.0%	$1
Direct-Update	Yes	51.28	8.1%	$4
Wide-Evidence	Yes	51.28	6.3%	$3.1
lkjyuio	No	51	95.1%	$48.5
Ashamed-Dishwasher	Yes	50	2.1%	$1
Alicxe	Yes	50	2.1%	$1
45341	Yes	50	2.1%	$1
fgretg	Yes	50	2.1%	$1
StellaMia	Yes	50	2.1%	$1
imteq	Yes	50	0.2%	$0.1
415421	Yes	50	2.1%	$1
Troubled-Anesthesiologist	Yes	50	2.1%	$1
feifeiliu9	Yes	50	2.1%	$1
tweetmaster	Yes	50	3.1%	$1.5
TheSuperCheiii	Yes	49.99	2.9%	$1.4
Bejohnny	Yes	49.13	2.4%	$1.12
Clementiner	Yes	47.62	2.2%	$1
fanbingbinger	Yes	47.62	2.2%	$1
mct21	Yes	47.06	8.8%	$4
Tildaaad	Yes	45.01	1.7%	$0.72
JoeRox	Yes	44.72	9.3%	$4
tangw0	Yes	44	2.4%	$1.01
jessicacropley2000	Yes	40.82	5.1%	$2
chanlners	Yes	36.68	1.6%	$0.55
SUPERJOJO	Yes	36.67	1.6%	$0.55
eeirl	Yes	36.67	1.6%	$0.55
Baumfreund	Yes	36.14	7.9%	$2.75
Fearless-Gem	Yes	33	3.2%	$1.02
Swift Raven 390A	Yes	30	1.6%	$0.47
Azure Pulse 6D37	Yes	28.57	7.3%	$2
daroghi	Yes	26.87	4.4%	$1.18
Admired-Waiter	Yes	21.67	1.6%	$0.33
kkssio	Yes	20	1.5%	$0.28
3366	Yes	17	1.6%	$0.26
fixedincome	Yes	16.39	6.3%	$1
fraser	No	15.74	95.5%	$15
Davidattembrah	Yes	15.63	6.6%	$1
Royal Maven 7069	No	8.92	93.7%	$8.25
LanguidOx	No	7.44	94.0%	$6.98
PPMT	Yes	3.1	1.4%	$0.04
pd.unique	Yes	2.54	3.0%	$0.08	Jun 19, 12:43 AM UTC
zxcursed121	Yes	1.8	1.6%	$0.03
rfgjnfg	No	1.66	98.8%	$1.64
ioy	No	1.41	97.7%	$1.38
Grizzled-Depression	No	1.15	95.1%	$1.09
latentline	No	1.06	94.2%	$1
l1nkus	Yes	0.7	6.3%	$0.04

296 of 296 positions.

Holders by valueThe same holders, ranked by what their position is worth now.

Trader	Holding value
Indigo Signal 2966	$866.67K
ufyjgkughoih	$210.62
lkjyuio	$51

Analytics