What is the “US defaults on debt by 2027?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: US defaults on debt by 2027? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Right now Yes trades at 2.0¢ and No at 98.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 2.0% for Yes and 98.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2027 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($18.28K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($3.53K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 107 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 61.7% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Oct 1, 5:11 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/us-defaults-on-debt-by-2027) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

US defaults on debt by 2027? Polymarket Odds

Market referenceus-defaults-on-debt-by-2027Updated just now

politicsActive

Closes Jan 1, 2027 UTCpoliticseconomy

Yes

2.0%

98.0%

Buy Yes 2¢Buy No 98¢

24h Volume

$18.3K

Liquidity

$3.5K

Closes

Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Yes price

2¢

Market actionRead-only Polymarket handoff.

Yes

2.0%

98.0%

24h volume

$18.28K

Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.

Trade

buy Yes· 2¢

Open in terminal$18.28K 24h vol

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

just now

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Spread

2.2%

Observed

just now

Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Active

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

2.0%

Orderbook depth should be read with the displayed bid/ask, liquidity, and observation time.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

107

Wallets

107

Top 10 share

62%

Yes / No shares

4.34K / 4.34K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

326

Wallets

167

Loaded notional

Open market positionsProvider-reported rows from the displayed market-position observation.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
CB-Compound	No	1K	96.7%	$1K
MrFate	Yes	952.78	3.5%	$1.15K	Mar 20, 8:18 PM UTC

Topic room

Every related market on one live board

US Economy oddsWill the US enter a recession?

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “US defaults on debt by 2027?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: US defaults on debt by 2027? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: Right now Yes trades at 2.0¢ and No at 98.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 2.0% for Yes and 98.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2027 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($18.28K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($3.53K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Outcome

Avg entry

Cost basis

Last trade

CB-Compound

96.7%

$1K

MrFate

Yes

952.78

3.5%

$1.15K

Mar 20, 8:18 PM UTC

Trader	Current holding value
CB-Compound	$980
GTOrski1	$593.66
CeroXu	$204.17
WallaceWW	$200.2
edgeguy	$196
freemath	$195.31
Donkov	$98.01
nnnbd	$98
ohooy	$98
keyme	$98
toufeng	$97.06
BFivePol	$86.38