Question 1

What is the “Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027?” market asking?

Accepted Answer

It asks whether the following will happen: Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

Question 2

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Accepted Answer

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

Question 3

When does this market close?

Accepted Answer

Trading is scheduled to close on Dec 31, 2026 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

Question 4

How does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, “capture” means Khamenei is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that he is no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it…

Question 5

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Accepted Answer

24h volume ($79.86K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Question 6

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Accepted Answer

Vultax loaded 44 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 79.6% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Question 7

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Accepted Answer

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Mar 2, 8:25 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Question 8

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

Accepted Answer

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-capture-khamenei-before-2027) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Trader	Side	Outcome	Price	Shares	Time
Heny132	buy	Yes	0.1%	4.13K	Mar 1, 2:34 AM UTC
PandaAgain	sell	Yes

Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027?

Questions about this market