Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes | sell | 1.62 | $0.891 | $1.44 | Mar 4, 2026 |
|
| sell |
| 5.56 |
| $0.810 |
| $4.5 |
| Mar 4, 2026 |
 Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Yes | buy | 1.59 | $0.630 | $1 | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Yes | buy | 1.28 | $0.781 | $1 | Mar 3, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 62.11 | $0.038 | $2.36 | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Yes | buy | 6.58 | $0.380 | $2.5 | Mar 1, 2026 |
 Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?Yes | sell | 2 | $0.940 | $1.88 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?Yes | sell | 1 | $0.940 | $0.94 | Mar 1, 2026 |
 US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Yes | buy | 74.47 | $0.134 | $10 | Mar 1, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.100 | $10 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?Yes | buy | 3.89 | $0.643 | $2.5 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Yes | buy | 79.23 | $0.126 | $10 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?Yes | buy | 3.08 | $0.650 | $2 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes | buy | 3.24 | $0.617 | $2 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Yes | buy | 11.11 | $0.540 | $6 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?Yes | buy | 15.71 | $0.255 | $4 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.100 | $10 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Yes | buy | 19.9 | $0.210 | $4.18 | Feb 28, 2026 |
 Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Yes | sell | 5.81 | $0.720 | $4.18 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Yes | buy | 10.71 | $0.280 | $3 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Yes | buy | 27.38 | $0.256 | $7 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Yes | buy | 5.81 | $0.860 | $5 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Yes | buy | 13.64 | $0.220 | $3 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Yes | sell | 8 | $0.710 | $5.68 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Yes | sell | 16.12 | $0.186 | $3 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes | sell | 11.11 | $0.954 | $10.6 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Yes | sell | 27.83 | $0.927 | $25.8 | Feb 28, 2026 |
 Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027?Yes | sell | 41 | $0.040 | $1.64 | Feb 28, 2026 |
 Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.540 | $2.7 | Feb 28, 2026 |
 US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 14 | $0.998 | $13.97 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.100 | $1 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Yes | buy | 17.83 | $0.112 | $2 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Yes | buy | 16.13 | $0.310 | $5 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027?Yes | buy | 41.67 | $0.120 | $5 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes | buy | 11.11 | $0.450 | $5 | Feb 28, 2026 |
 Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes | sell | 21 | $0.989 | $20.77 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.670 | $3.35 | Feb 27, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 2 | $0.660 | $1.32 | Feb 27, 2026 |
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes | sell | 9 | $0.570 | $5.13 | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.600 | $3 | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes | buy | 4 | $0.600 | $2.4 | Feb 17, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.057 | $2.85 | Feb 17, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.430 | $3.01 | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 21 | $0.190 | $3.99 | Feb 17, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 27 | $0.180 | $4.86 | Feb 17, 2026 |