Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 42.5% on 11 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 251 daily closes on record from 11 Jul 2025 to 27 Mar 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 55.5% on 9 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 25 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 55.5% on 9 Aug 2025.
1,000 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 8:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 251 points, 11 Jul 2025 – 27 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2025 | 42.5% |
| 27 Mar 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | Yes | 466.25K |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 198.22K |
| tjdlps |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-march-31-2026
| Yes |
| 127.24K |
| Valuck | Yes | 117.01K |
| Erasmus. | Yes | 100K |
| shudd | Yes | 76.79K |
| 123z | Yes | 76.08K |
| Utilized-Trader | Yes | 62.38K |
| uncc | Yes | 61.75K |
| SemyonMarmeladov | Yes | 60.25K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
