Analytics
Resolved Yes on 14 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 19.5% on 6 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 130 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 14 Mar 2026, the highest close was 100% on 13 Mar 2026 and the lowest 9.5% on 16 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 27 points up, to 67.3% on 3 Mar 2026. $5.48M traded over the market's life.
345 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 15, 12:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 130 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 14 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 19.5% |
| 14 Mar 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Vacant-Sari | No | 200K |
| reasoningTokens | No | 150K |
| ProviDancer | No | 148.29K |
If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-iran-close-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-2027
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Secondary-Houseboat | No | 100K |
| Austere-Sherry | No | 53K |
| Indigo Atlas 7DF0 | No | 41.06K |
| 65765757 | No | 23.42K |
| Impolite-Sauerkraut | No | 20K |
| Whatsthename | No | 20K |
| Solar Summit 1D07 | No | 20K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
