Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 8.5% on 27 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 42 daily closes on record from 27 Feb 2026 to 1 May 2026 (22 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 11% on 12 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Apr 2026. $9.53M traded over the market's life.
618 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 7:01 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 42 points, 27 Feb 2026 – 1 May 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Feb 2026 | 8.5% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| wan123 | Yes | 275.96K |
| Treadmilled | Yes | 187.19K |
| bakfast | Yes | 72.62K |
| Wavy-Analyst | Yes | 65K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-april-30-2026
| Knobby-Boat | Yes | 62.09K |
| surf | Yes | 59.98K |
| rainpera | Yes | 57.04K |
| Generator | Yes | 52.84K |
| mrpropercook | Yes | 40.3K |
| Erasmus. | Yes | 39.3K |
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