Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?

Name: Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16? — implied probability history
License: https://vultax.com/legal/terms

Resolved

No, settled Jan 17, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.1M

Resolved

Settled

Jan 17, 2026 UTC

Positions left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
w1danik	Yes	9.12K	10.9%	$997
Pertinent-Upstairs	Yes	7.38K	6.8%	$498.99
FabulousCar	Yes	7.34K	6.7%	$491.08
Corrupt-Synonym	Yes	7.3K	1.4%	$99.11
boombioof	Yes	6.75K	2.3%	$154.67
zarapogo	Yes	6.11K	4.1%	$250
gigilo555	Yes	5.42K	5.5%	$300
Misty Scout DAE4	Yes	5.01K	9.0%	$450
ScienceDog	Yes	4.44K	2.5%	$109.84
Elastic-Category	Yes	4.24K	1.2%	$50
huve	Yes	4.21K	2.4%	$100
Content-Faith	Yes	3.58K	7.8%	$280.02
VicariousLiving	Yes	3.57K	11.2%	$400
Jumbo-Hatchet	Yes	3.38K	4.0%	$134
FilippoMazzocchi	Yes	3.38K	5.0%	$169.28
Dapper	Yes	3.07K	1.1%	$32.91	Jan 15, 10:38 PM UTC
Aaaaaguess	Yes	2.84K	3.5%	$100
Rapid Pioneer F46D	Yes	2.67K	4.3%	$114.13
Crowded-Novel	Yes	2.32K	4.3%	$100
ShakshukaBud	Yes	2.21K	2.3%	$50
xargot	Yes	2.1K	7.2%	$150.59
Admirable-Planula	Yes	2.07K	4.5%	$94
LostLich	Yes	2.02K	5.0%	$100
puffiercranny64	Yes	1.85K	2.6%	$48
Slippery-Bracelet	Yes	1.82K	1.2%	$21.83
Gambastylr	Yes	1.68K	3.9%	$66
Superbrinkie	Yes	1.67K	1.5%	$25
makesushi1	Yes	1.67K	0.3%	$5	Jan 16, 11:59 AM UTC
Skeletal-Flat	Yes	1.65K	7.9%	$131
Liron2509	Yes	1.64K	4.9%	$80
Beaulieusurmer	Yes	1.6K	3.1%	$50
maheart	Yes	1.6K	6.3%	$100
nickfluencer	Yes	1.52K	6.6%	$100
WhatTheHelly	Yes	1.5K	1.3%	$19.5
Youthful-Drink	Yes	1.47K	3.4%	$50
Eminent-Intervention	Yes	1.47K	2.7%	$39.65
goodwill666	Yes	1.44K	7.0%	$100
Flat-Jiffy	Yes	1.36K	4.3%	$58.14
Unfolded-Antiquity	Yes	1.25K	8.0%	$100
Trusting-Sportsman	Yes	1.21K	9.0%	$108.8
Trentt	Yes	1.12K	8.9%	$99.28
liberta777	Yes	1.1K	6.2%	$68
Masculine-Soap	Yes	1.04K	2.9%	$30
MrFizzyBubbly	Yes	1.01K	2.2%	$21.86
spawnpaws	Yes	1K	5.0%	$50
grapygroyp	Yes	1K	4.6%	$45.97
goulougoulou	Yes	975.58	3.1%	$30
satoshiwise	Yes	943.35	4.4%	$41.29
theBT	Yes	843.01	4.2%	$35
koenigseggs	Yes	800	1.5%	$12
Rosy-Spelt	Yes	769.32	6.5%	$50
Screenovernight	Yes	739.01	3.4%	$25
Sharbainz	Yes	725.4	5.0%	$36.27
GLA-ArmsTrader	Yes	717.14	1.4%	$10
Gegemima	Yes	714.01	4.3%	$31.12
Shadow-x	Yes	695.28	3.6%	$25
LaBefana	Yes	683.77	2.9%	$20
Seaspor	Yes	669.5	3.0%	$20
shoshking	Yes	666.67	1.5%	$10
robinho195	Yes	655.13	3.0%	$19.64
Doting-Stranger	Yes	625	1.6%	$10
StarLord77	Yes	599.9	2.5%	$15
bitcarus	Yes	576.29	7.8%	$45
Yellowish-Audit	Yes	571.43	3.5%	$20
KarlP	Yes	540	9.3%	$50
Philvix	Yes	534.93	2.6%	$14
leprxjarod	Yes	503.61	4.0%	$20
Detailed-Restaurant	Yes	501.01	4.5%	$22.5
Lean-Dawn	Yes	500	0.2%	$1	Jan 16, 7:17 PM UTC
SPMON	Yes	499.99	2.9%	$14.5
Inthebeninginggg	Yes	494.27	1.4%	$7	Jan 16, 4:33 PM UTC
Tiny-Stress	Yes	485.13	2.7%	$13
jennifermaxwell	Yes	462	0.2%	$0.92	Jan 16, 3:35 PM UTC
Kishz	Yes	449.44	8.9%	$40
Whitebay	Yes	447.49	0.8%	$3.58	Jan 16, 3:59 AM UTC
Elementary-Outrage	Yes	434.78	2.3%	$10
Said2007	Yes	425.68	7.3%	$31
williamsgerald	Yes	425	0.2%	$0.85	Jan 16, 2:49 PM UTC
daughertycarol	Yes	425	0.2%	$0.85	Jan 16, 3:27 PM UTC
potatocake	Yes	421.1	4.7%	$20
kfrye	Yes	421	0.2%	$0.84	Jan 16, 4:13 PM UTC
williamskathryn	Yes	414	0.2%	$0.83	Jan 16, 2:36 PM UTC
christensenangela	Yes	409	0.2%	$0.82	Jan 16, 3:43 PM UTC
kaiserace	Yes	403.87	4.5%	$18.05
Shoddy-Tale	Yes	402.07	3.5%	$14
nirams	Yes	400	7.0%	$28
aimo173	Yes	399.85	0.3%	$1	Jan 16, 6:33 PM UTC
Rapid Maven 98A4	Yes	390.33	9.0%	$35.13
aaronschlacht	Yes	381.88	1.4%	$5.34
charlene09	Yes	381	0.2%	$0.76	Jan 16, 4:00 PM UTC
marc66	Yes	375	0.2%	$0.75	Jan 16, 3:41 PM UTC
Swift Lynx F5D2	Yes	357.14	2.8%	$10
Ivory Meteor 50CF	Yes	351.24	2.8%	$10
Shushman123	Yes	331.27	2.3%	$7.5
Joemove	Yes	303.03	3.3%	$10
Villainous-Pinstripe	Yes	300	6.0%	$18
Superior-Fritter	Yes	289.1	7.6%	$22
polimeerkat42	Yes	288.57	5.5%	$16
Aldrig	Yes	274.92	7.3%	$20
Bod110	Yes	273.12	2.9%	$8
Zijp	Yes	272.73	1.1%	$3
Awesome-Thanks	Yes	254.05	3.5%	$9
Littleshock	Yes	248.5	7.4%	$18.33
Heinzharold	Yes	242.7	4.1%	$10
coinxmoon	Yes	240.8	2.1%	$5
Wiry-Merchant	Yes	234.38	6.4%	$15
Official-Patron	Yes	233.26	4.3%	$10
MRxmx	Yes	227.27	6.6%	$15
Sure-Footed-Injoke	Yes	224.88	4.0%	$9
Sidimiskine	Yes	222.22	9.0%	$20
Neglected-Ark	Yes	222.22	9.0%	$20
jww1978	Yes	221.42	1.4%	$3
Made-Up-Apron	Yes	213.66	4.1%	$8.73
Sturdy-Receptor	Yes	208.05	8.6%	$17.83
AdamPapa	Yes	204.08	4.9%	$10
Bagstradamus	Yes	203.44	3.4%	$7
thomasr888	Yes	201.5	9.9%	$20
TheFoodieRudz	Yes	200	5.0%	$10
Godsphavoritegoy	Yes	197.91	5.5%	$11
Enormous-Courthouse	Yes	188.07	5.3%	$10
PluckyFox0	Yes	183.72	0.5%	$1	Jan 15, 7:55 PM UTC
Ttones	Yes	182.92	1.3%	$2.4	Jan 16, 7:35 AM UTC
HighSpeedDev61	Yes	180	8.9%	$16.05
steadygoat	Yes	177.02	4.7%	$8.32
bendrany	Yes	176.96	2.8%	$5
Cultivated-Papaya	Yes	171.88	6.4%	$11
dinodance	Yes	162.99	1.2%	$2
Mmessi	Yes	161.29	6.2%	$10
Ayk123	Yes	153.55	3.3%	$5
rorobo	Yes	152.2	3.3%	$5
Cautious-Sectional	Yes	152.18	6.6%	$10
novak135	Yes	151.52	6.6%	$10
possessed	Yes	150	4.6%	$6.9
7jrjejeheh737374	Yes	148.18	8.8%	$13.04
Buoyant-Exocrine	Yes	146.43	1.4%	$2
Agonizing-Hide	Yes	146.43	1.4%	$2
babbayaga	Yes	141.49	4.7%	$6.7
Malandraj	Yes	133.33	1.5%	$2
matstangherlin	Yes	127.61	6.5%	$8.24
Emileg	Yes	125	2.4%	$3
coxbox123	Yes	118	1.7%	$2.01
STdogpina	Yes	113.64	4.4%	$5
saaaasa	Yes	112.53	8.9%	$10
Wan-Handover	Yes	111.47	9.0%	$10
Sociable-Restructuring	Yes	111.11	9.0%	$10
Guggs	Yes	111.11	9.0%	$10
Cosmic Ledger A7BC	Yes	111.11	9.0%	$10
Eastwind	Yes	111.11	9.0%	$10
vitorinogv	Yes	111.11	9.0%	$10
dahley	Yes	101	9.0%	$9.09
Wordy-Threat	Yes	100	3.7%	$3.69
Ruiziness	Yes	100	3.4%	$3.4
xiaodouzi	Yes	100	0.2%	$0.2
jmelamie	Yes	100	5.0%	$5
AFOVOS	Yes	100	1.3%	$1.3
Unsung-Tool	Yes	93.75	3.2%	$3
brightblade	Yes	89.29	5.6%	$5
Those-Smelting	Yes	85.55	11.0%	$9.41
Delicious-mango	Yes	83.39	2.7%	$2.25
abdelhakes	Yes	80.65	6.2%	$5
Indigo Orbit 7A6E	Yes	78.59	6.4%	$5
Jade Atlas 42E0	Yes	77.78	9.0%	$7
Azure Comet 322A	No	77.05	99.4%	$76.62	Jan 15, 4:32 PM UTC
Phantomuser1929	Yes	76.41	3.9%	$2.98
Frb98mf	Yes	76	6.6%	$5
Username498	Yes	75.76	6.6%	$5
Embellished-Chaplain	Yes	75.76	6.6%	$5
Cultivated-Assignment	Yes	75.31	6.6%	$5
Swift-Mole	Yes	75	1.3%	$1
Kazabubu	Yes	71.59	3.5%	$2.54
bridge2far	Yes	71.43	1.4%	$1
leojou	Yes	71.43	1.4%	$1
armagedd0n	Yes	71.43	1.4%	$1
Mayo-Solana	Yes	71.35	4.2%	$3
Kingofbricks	Yes	70	6.3%	$4.41
gdkfg123	Yes	68.48	1.5%	$1
spycyy	Yes	65.15	6.6%	$4.3
Touch0fgrey	Yes	62.5	8.0%	$5
Popular-Cube	Yes	62.5	4.8%	$3
Smoggy-Probation	Yes	60	5.0%	$3
tonydiablo	Yes	58.82	3.4%	$2
Tristan18	Yes	57.39	8.7%	$5
Understated-Spy	Yes	56.16	4.3%	$2.39
Caring-Microphone	Yes	55.56	9.0%	$5
Rodwenn	Yes	55.56	1.8%	$1
Uncommon-Pasture	Yes	55.56	9.0%	$5
Mowgli45	Yes	51.67	3.5%	$1.8
Gray-Cherry	Yes	51.28	3.9%	$2
Skyarrival	Yes	50	2.0%	$1
3errab	Yes	50	10.0%	$5
AsuraSmellsLikeASS	Yes	50	0.1%	$0.05
E4C5D4	Yes	50	10.0%	$5
lkajh4t9	Yes	50	6.0%	$3
Every-Footage	Yes	47.62	2.1%	$1
Tired-Proportion	Yes	47.62	4.2%	$2
Frilly-Brick	Yes	45.87	10.9%	$5
Boss1994	Yes	45.45	8.8%	$4
Fat-Gearshift	Yes	43.81	4.6%	$2
Damaged-Disease	Yes	43.48	2.3%	$1
Warmhearted-Stonework	Yes	43.48	2.3%	$1
stasqaz	Yes	43.48	2.3%	$1
Pattaxus	Yes	42.81	6.2%	$2.65
Mortified-Scientist	Yes	42.79	2.3%	$1
Conoronor	Yes	41.67	2.4%	$1
Nanbabana	Yes	41.67	2.4%	$1
noctuacore	Yes	40	2.5%	$1
storm999	Yes	40	5.0%	$2
GorDima	Yes	39.53	7.6%	$3.02
Tavo41	Yes	38.8	7.5%	$2.91
Watchful-Blight	Yes	36	5.0%	$1.8
roninDday	Yes	32.79	6.1%	$2
Rapid Pulse C336	Yes	32.26	3.1%	$1
Saracens7	Yes	30.3	3.3%	$1
Chatontoudou	Yes	29.62	6.8%	$2
Swift Ledger 2D86	Yes	29.41	3.4%	$1
MeJunfeng	Yes	27.78	3.6%	$1
Witty-Farming	Yes	27.78	3.6%	$1
Gr4nt	Yes	25	8.0%	$2
Zeeqit	Yes	25	4.0%	$1
mogus1989	Yes	23.81	4.2%	$1
GorkaUria	Yes	23.26	4.3%	$1
natentor	Yes	22.99	8.7%	$2
Grandiose-Dish	Yes	22.33	6.0%	$1.34
Slippery-Animal	Yes	22.22	9.0%	$2
Minimarketman	Yes	21.74	4.6%	$1
Ornery-Misnomer	Yes	21.28	4.7%	$1
Mario83	Yes	21.28	4.7%	$1
Yes-or-No	Yes	21.21	4.7%	$1
Thorny-Share	Yes	21	9.0%	$1.89
Anchored-Violation	Yes	20.41	4.9%	$1
A7MD1	Yes	20	10.0%	$2
thebossofgr	Yes	20	5.1%	$1.02
Susoxixo	Yes	20	6.0%	$1.2
El-Sr-Eme	Yes	20	5.0%	$1
Windy-Seaweed	Yes	20	5.0%	$1
Unpleasant-Kill	Yes	20	5.0%	$1
BoughtTheTop	Yes	18	7.9%	$1.42
Cluttered-Shrimp	Yes	17.9	5.6%	$1
Etherion	Yes	17.75	8.0%	$1.42
Attached-Patent	Yes	16.67	6.0%	$1
DNS-1	Yes	16.67	6.0%	$1
ccatheri	Yes	16.35	6.1%	$1
Pricey-Notebook	Yes	15.63	6.4%	$1
Bite-Sized-Craft	Yes	15.58	6.4%	$1
Miserly-Cape	Yes	15.38	6.5%	$1
creamminal	Yes	15.38	6.5%	$1
Misty Harbor CB1F	Yes	15.15	6.6%	$1
mickeyB	Yes	15.1	7.8%	$1.18
rocketcrypto	Yes	15	1.0%	$0.15
coscuprime	Yes	15	8.1%	$1.22
Bennos3	Yes	14.71	6.8%	$1
Sure-Footed-Inbox	Yes	14.71	6.8%	$1
Large-Lychee	Yes	14.29	7.0%	$1
Constant-Caliber	Yes	11.11	9.0%	$1
noseqpo	Yes	11.11	9.0%	$1
Impressionable-Neighbourhood	Yes	11.11	9.0%	$1
Damaged-Contention	Yes	10	10.0%	$1
B0G0N1	Yes	9.62	10.4%	$1
Spirited-Pinworm	Yes	5.05	99.0%	$5
iwantsomeofjimmyswater	Yes	5	51.0%	$2.55
s4516561516516	Yes	5	0.1%	$0.01
J2DVF	Yes	5	0.1%	$0.01
553513551	Yes	5	0.1%	$0.01
nAsaSNBC	Yes	5	0.1%	$0.01
rdrmy	No	3.84	98.9%	$3.8
Ashamed-Castle	No	2.02	99.3%	$2	Jan 16, 6:50 AM UTC
Vivid-Fingernail	No	1.05	95.0%	$1
SamuelTennyson	No	1.01	98.7%	$1
AdairPullman	No	1.01	99.0%	$1
CarrAdams	No	1.01	99.3%	$1
RaviK	Yes	0.33	1.5%	$0

271 of 271 positions.

Holders by valueThe same holders, ranked by what their position is worth now.

Trader	Holding value
Azure Comet 322A	$77.05
rdrmy	$3.84
Ashamed-Castle	$2.02

Analytics