Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?Yes | buy | 48.28 | $0.029 | $1.4 | Feb 21, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 90.91 |
| $0.011 |
| $1 |
| Feb 21, 2026 |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?No | sell | 50 | $0.046 | $2.3 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?No | buy | 50 | $0.100 | $5 | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 142.86 | $0.070 | $10 | Feb 4, 2026 |
 Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the February 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 2K | $0.003 | $6 | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 111.76 | $0.047 | $5.26 | Jan 15, 2026 |
 Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?Yes | sell | 99.2 | $0.053 | $5.26 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?Yes | buy | 99.2 | $0.097 | $9.62 | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?Yes | sell | 500.71 | $0.019 | $9.43 | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 3K | $0.001 | $3 | Jan 14, 2026 |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.210 | $2.1 | Jan 14, 2026 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.140 | $7 | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 116.28 | $0.043 | $5 | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.003 | $3 | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?Yes | buy | 135.14 | $0.037 | $5 | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?Yes | buy | 383.68 | $0.027 | $10.52 | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Yes | sell | 56 | $0.180 | $10.08 | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?Yes | buy | 270.83 | $0.048 | $13 | Jan 11, 2026 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?Yes | buy | 187.95 | $0.047 | $8.83 | Jan 11, 2026 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?Yes | buy | 237.12 | $0.066 | $15.6 | Jan 10, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.210 | $21 | Jan 10, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Yes | buy | 111.11 | $0.180 | $20 | Jan 10, 2026 |