Analytics
Yes is at 1.5%, down 47 points from 48% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 173 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 48% on 1 May 2026 and the lowest 1.4% on 4 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.4%; a month before, 1.4%. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 5.5% on 2 Jun 2026.
It is one of 24 markets under “Who will be arrested before 2027?”.
$523.45 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $51.62K, with a 0.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is erenyeagr with 125 shares; the largest No position is DEGENKHAN with 179.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 6:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 173 points, 1 May 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 48.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 1.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DEGENKHAN | No | 178.69 |
| erenyeagr | Yes | 124.72 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 51 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027
11 more markets, none above 4.2%.
| peakyman |
| Yes |
| 46.32 |
| shiifoo | No | 44.99 |
| Elias.Thornwell | No | 40.57 |
| chx02 | No | 22 |
| thecaricature | Yes | 20 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 19.82 |
| Nadmi | Yes | 16.66 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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