Analytics
Yes is at 7.6%, down 42 points from 50% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 175 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 26 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 51.5% on 4 May 2026 and the lowest 2.2% on 26 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6.8%; a month before, 2.2%. Its largest one-day move was 43 points down, to 9% on 5 May 2026.
It is one of 24 markets under “Who will be arrested before 2027?”.
$562.5 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $50.55K since listing. The order book holds $11.14K, with a 0.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is Gohst with 4.3K shares; the largest No position is asdasdasdasdasdasdasd with 964. Ten wallets hold 74.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 67 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 26, 11:50 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 175 points, 1 May 2026 – 26 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 50.0% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | 7.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Gohst | Yes | 4.28K |
| Female-Tailbud | Yes | 1.7K |
| asdasdasdasdasdasdasd | No | 964.48 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027
12 more markets, none above 4.3%.
| crossx |
| No |
| 602 |
| shiifoo | No | 443.56 |
| aviato | No | 408.09 |
| TheWindKnowsmyName | No | 395.96 |
| Hyperlong | No | 393.44 |
| Aromatic-Carter | No | 375 |
| MrNoItAll | No | 369 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
