Analytics
Yes is at 21%, down 29 points from 49.5% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 179 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 72% on 20 May 2026 and the lowest 17% on 24 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 21.5%; a month before, 24%. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 30.5% on 18 Jun 2026.
It is one of 24 markets under “Who will be arrested before 2027?”.
$51.79 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $36.36K since listing. The order book holds $14.73K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 381 trades, $3.96K bought Yes and $7.2K bought No; the largest was a $1.28K buy of Yes at 27.6¢.
The largest Yes position is DirkDiggler67 with 3.1K shares; the largest No position is MrNoItAll with 1.8K. Ten wallets hold 75.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 2:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 179 points, 1 May 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 49.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 21.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DirkDiggler67 | Yes | 3.12K |
| SnapElectionAvoider | Yes | 1.93K |
| MrNoItAll | No | 1.77K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027
12 more markets, none above 3.6%.
| StarMaster |
| No |
| 1.32K |
| Silver Signal 409F | No | 1.16K |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 804.63 |
| duncjst | Yes | 728.64 |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | No | 713.95 |
| Aromatic-Carter | Yes | 516.66 |
| Aleksei-Ivanovich | No | 499.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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