Analytics
Yes is at 4.3%, down 45 points from 49% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 179 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49% on 1 May 2026 and the lowest 3.5% on 6 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.8%; a month before, 6.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 30% on 2 May 2026.
It is one of 24 markets under “Who will be arrested before 2027?”.
$52.29 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $31.83K since listing. The order book holds $17.29K, with a 1.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 440 trades, $2.17K bought Yes and $4.63K bought No.
The largest Yes position is SantiU with 1.5K shares; the largest No position is DFK with 7.3K. Ten wallets hold 79.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 2:18 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 179 points, 1 May 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 49.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 4.3% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027
12 more markets, none above 3.6%.
| asdasdasdasdasdasdasd |
| Yes |
| 734.99 |
| Elquimico | Yes | 727.09 |
| Basquetipster | No | 500 |
| Prize-Jar | Yes | 463.59 |
| peepeepooppoop | Yes | 373.11 |
| eccho | Yes | 371.02 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 317.57 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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