Analytics
Yes is at 5%, down 45 points from 49.5% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 179 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 51% on 4 May 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 12 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6%; a month before, 11.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 32.5% on 5 May 2026.
It is one of 24 markets under “Who will be arrested before 2027?”.
$87.71 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $9.87K since listing. The order book holds $16.18K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 248 trades, $482.63 bought Yes and $1.8K bought No.
The largest Yes position is macrosteaks with 530 shares; the largest No position is DFK with 543. Ten wallets hold 83.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 1:12 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 179 points, 1 May 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 49.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 5.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DFK | No | 543.35 |
| macrosteaks | Yes | 530 |
| MrNoItAll | No | 432.57 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027
12 more markets, none above 4.2%.
| peepeepooppoop |
| Yes |
| 400 |
| Limp-Chasuble | No | 300 |
| Gruesome-Thought | No | 119.68 |
| banestow | Yes | 96.17 |
| Keen Oracle 2BE4 | Yes | 78.31 |
| singularityman | Yes | 71.83 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 59.2 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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