Analytics
Yes is at 4.5%, down 44 points from 48.5% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 177 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 48.5% on 1 May 2026 and the lowest 3% on 16 May 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5.1%; a month before, 6.9%. Its largest one-day move was 38 points down, to 11% on 2 May 2026.
It is one of 24 markets under “Who will be arrested before 2027?”.
$342.27 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $144.42, with a 6.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 50 shares; the largest No position is YoelRomeroMMA with 100.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 7:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 177 points, 1 May 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 48.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 4.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| YoelRomeroMMA | No | 100 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 49.99 |
| thecaricature | Yes | 38.82 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027
12 more markets, none above 4.2%.
| tiongbu |
| Yes |
| 20 |
| DEGENKHAN | No | 20 |
| macrosteaks | No | 15.01 |
| perepuk | Yes | 15 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 11.28 |
| cristinathearena | Yes | 6.29 |
| Ilostmywife | No | 5.15 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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