Analytics
Yes is at 4.5%, down 21 points from 25% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 176 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 51% on 4 May 2026 and the lowest 2.5% on 24 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6.2%; a month before, 6.8%. Its largest one-day move was 38 points down, to 12.5% on 24 May 2026.
It is one of 24 markets under “Who will be arrested before 2027?”.
$121.65 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $5.45K since listing. The order book holds $19.12K, with a 0.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 121 trades, $69.85 bought Yes and $1.2K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Cosmic Pulse D3FC with 408 shares; the largest No position is Alegrandebig with 788. Ten wallets hold 80.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 1:00 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 176 points, 1 May 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 25.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 4.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Alegrandebig | No | 788.08 |
| Cosmic Pulse D3FC | Yes | 408.16 |
| Cobalt Raven 0F87 | No | 185.07 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027
12 more markets, none above 4.2%.
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 170.11 |
| andy29 | No | 100 |
| Natural-Engineer | Yes | 91.97 |
| peepeepooppoop | Yes | 81.17 |
| il1 | No | 80.1 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 75.22 |
| TheWindKnowsmyName | Yes | 67.3 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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