Analytics
Yes is at 10.9%, down 39 points from 50% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 177 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 26 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 53.5% on 19 May 2026 and the lowest 1.8% on 21 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 10.5%; a month before, 11.8%. Its largest one-day move was 42 points down, to 11.5% on 25 May 2026.
It is one of 24 markets under “Who will be arrested before 2027?”.
$1.32K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $749.92, with a 16.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 64 trades, $28.19 bought Yes and $383.95 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 218 shares; the largest No position is Barren-Underpants with 120.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 67 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 26, 6:06 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 177 points, 1 May 2026 – 26 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 50.0% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | 10.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 218.21 |
| Barren-Underpants | No | 120 |
| macrosteaks | No | 57.24 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027
12 more markets, none above 4.6%.
| shiifoo |
| No |
| 27.81 |
| PCMTest | No | 21 |
| sbot2 | Yes | 20 |
| TheWindKnowsmyName | No | 16 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 10 |
| peepeepooppoop | No | 10 |
| 48xsds | Yes | 4.2 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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