Analytics
Yes is at 5.5%, down 45 points from 50% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 173 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 52% on 4 May 2026 and the lowest 2.8% on 5 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.9%; a month before, 3.5%. Its largest one-day move was 43 points up, to 49.5% on 17 May 2026.
It is one of 24 markets under “Who will be arrested before 2027?”.
$13.98 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $5.56K since listing. The order book holds $15K, with a 1.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 131 trades, $166.93 bought Yes and $539.52 bought No.
The largest Yes position is DirkDiggler67 with 1.8K shares; the largest No position is elmcap2 with 1K. Ten wallets hold 96.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 4:50 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 173 points, 1 May 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 5.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DirkDiggler67 | Yes | 1.85K |
| elmcap2 | No | 1K |
| DEGENKHAN | No | 437.55 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027
12 more markets, none above 4.2%.
| xtxpleasecallme |
| No |
| 158.23 |
| mwenya | No | 143 |
| cocoa-110 | Yes | 99.97 |
| shiifoo | No | 78.09 |
| Elias.Thornwell | No | 75.46 |
| aviato | No | 55 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 42.16 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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