Analytics
Yes is at 4.9%, down 46 points from 50.5% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 179 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 59.5% on 6 May 2026 and the lowest 3.1% on 3 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.9%; a month before, 5.1%. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 17% on 10 May 2026.
It is one of 24 markets under “Who will be arrested before 2027?”.
$631.33 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $7.34K since listing. The order book holds $21.93K, with a 0.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 159 trades, $208.65 bought Yes and $2.54K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Shameful-Tackle-Eviction with 522 shares; the largest No position is DEGENKHAN with 1.3K. Ten wallets hold 79% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 12:44 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 179 points, 1 May 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 50.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 4.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DEGENKHAN | No | 1.27K |
| DFK | No | 610.13 |
| Shameful-Tackle-Eviction | Yes | 521.65 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027
12 more markets, none above 4.2%.
| peepeepooppoop |
| Yes |
| 400 |
| macrosteaks | Yes | 288.76 |
| Oklmntrader | Yes | 209.76 |
| SuSuDORIS | Yes | 200 |
| Aleksei-Ivanovich | No | 200 |
| asdasdasdasdasdasdasd | Yes | 157 |
| MrNoItAll | No | 154.32 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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