Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?

Name: Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? — implied probability history
License: https://vultax.com/legal/terms

Resolved

No, settled Aug 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.5M

Resolved

Settled

Aug 1, 2025 UTC

Positions left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
883d	Yes	37.29K	12.8%	$4.79K
horiz0n	Yes	30.08K	2.8%	$838.78
planetnine	Yes	24.4K	2.6%	$639.96
PlerFz	Yes	15.54K	16.8%	$2.61K
Halloween66	Yes	13.48K	10.9%	$1.46K
Uvuzugz	Yes	8.13K	2.6%	$211	Jul 31, 4:09 PM UTC
MolvX	Yes	7.38K	3.7%	$276.32	Aug 1, 3:23 AM UTC
Heavy-Rhetoric	Yes	7.37K	58.4%	$4.31K
smnnekho	Yes	6.59K	5.5%	$360.6
WoopyUrass	Yes	5.32K	13.7%	$725.73
gptalpacas	Yes	5K	10.0%	$501.33
gw00	Yes	4.08K	6.6%	$271.39
7Embers	Yes	4K	2.5%	$100
krodgar	Yes	3.64K	4.8%	$175.32
Mart1771	Yes	3.2K	5.8%	$185.86
Parallel-Mileage	Yes	3.2K	6.3%	$200
Bright Maven 1562	Yes	3.19K	1.8%	$57.41	Jul 31, 4:01 PM UTC
cwin	Yes	3.11K	1.4%	$45	Jul 31, 3:03 PM UTC
amazing-	Yes	3.01K	10.0%	$300
FridayNight	Yes	3K	0.8%	$24	Jul 31, 6:13 PM UTC
saimnaeem	Yes	2.96K	3.4%	$99.1
Keen Signal 880E	Yes	2.93K	35.0%	$1.02K
paolpaol	Yes	2.65K	8.6%	$227.38
Quadratus	Yes	2.58K	6.1%	$156.58
SackboyIndustries	Yes	2.5K	4.0%	$100
f4b14n	Yes	2.5K	39.1%	$977.71
Mr. Nagasaki	Yes	2.4K	11.7%	$280
eliae	Yes	2.35K	1.3%	$30	Jul 31, 3:45 PM UTC
KamalaYuh	Yes	2.34K	4.1%	$95.46
Jumpy-Heyday	Yes	2.3K	3.7%	$84.98	Jul 31, 1:32 PM UTC
ciam	Yes	2.29K	0.3%	$6.87	Aug 1, 12:32 AM UTC
AplzJuice19	Yes	2.28K	4.0%	$91
Ripe-Cable	Yes	2.26K	3.5%	$80
tachibanayuzu	Yes	2.13K	4.9%	$104.6
Jbuzubz	Yes	2.13K	3.0%	$63.2
Nervous-Sanity	Yes	2K	7.0%	$139.99
BeN	Yes	2K	1.2%	$24.2	Jul 31, 12:55 PM UTC
El Cumbion	Yes	1.85K	2.7%	$50
TKthunder	Yes	1.78K	26.1%	$465.7
Past-Atom	Yes	1.76K	0.4%	$8	Jul 31, 10:20 PM UTC
Sote	Yes	1.72K	5.8%	$100
test5567	Yes	1.54K	17.4%	$269
char	Yes	1.5K	6.1%	$91.5
gonewithwind	Yes	1.5K	0.7%	$10.5
Zizzler	Yes	1.39K	5.0%	$69.29
skidibipapa	Yes	1.37K	1.6%	$22.06	Jul 31, 5:27 PM UTC
Venerated-Breakfast	Yes	1.36K	4.7%	$64.46
jomavol974	Yes	1.29K	11.6%	$149.55
JohnnyAI	Yes	1.25K	7.2%	$90
rate.babes	Yes	1.25K	16.0%	$200
kierandon	Yes	1.23K	1.2%	$15.25	Jul 31, 3:51 PM UTC
Helli	Yes	1.19K	6.3%	$75
Even-Cartridge	Yes	1.16K	5.1%	$60
kayjikaymchi	Yes	1.15K	16.6%	$190.59
benj.amin17	Yes	1.15K	19.3%	$220.66
Neon Pioneer CCF7	Yes	1.03K	5.3%	$55
user-213094o	Yes	969.72	5.5%	$52.9
cubesmi	Yes	923.81	10.8%	$100
Complete-Parent	Yes	904.88	3.3%	$29.5
Xzm	Yes	846.24	2.9%	$25
petepwn	Yes	843.04	3.5%	$30
BigBallsBigProfit	Yes	836.34	4.7%	$39.24
Utilized-Circadian	Yes	832.34	11.8%	$97.85
trk34	Yes	831.94	5.8%	$47.96
LukasG	Yes	762.67	5.2%	$40
YinSan	Yes	762.37	13.1%	$100
hyoon1998	Yes	750	4.5%	$33.75
NotBasereality	Yes	750	3.2%	$24
ilovethefuturesomuch	Yes	733.33	15.0%	$110
Srfrsgsrfsrf	Yes	722.86	2.7%	$19.74
FlyingCheese	Yes	714.28	2.8%	$20
nisde	Yes	694.44	7.2%	$50
godnock	Yes	673.53	29.7%	$200
Sparbuchfeind7	Yes	616.33	1.4%	$8.87	Jul 31, 2:22 PM UTC
medpar	Yes	513.9	10.6%	$54.71
lekt69420	Yes	500	26.0%	$130
Wfsesfesf	Yes	480	2.8%	$13.44
False-Odds	Yes	479.84	13.5%	$65
Boll	Yes	478.62	15.0%	$71.95
Godofalexander	Yes	464.33	5.5%	$25.67
Gusarich	Yes	443.5	4.5%	$20
Jzjzbzjb	Yes	422.86	2.8%	$11.64
jmarc369	Yes	420.56	3.6%	$15
millson123	Yes	403.18	7.8%	$31.53
Boringbet	Yes	400	5.2%	$20.8
mihaifyi	Yes	400	2.5%	$10
majora88	Yes	389.77	6.7%	$26.1
apanttila	Yes	380.8	5.8%	$22.01
m33k	Yes	370	12.8%	$47.33
noyes00	Yes	365.29	4.3%	$15.57
Boby4458	Yes	347.94	10.2%	$35.49
insufferable	Yes	347.4	14.1%	$49
Stylishly7427	Yes	347.11	20.0%	$69.46
angese	Yes	345.35	32.9%	$113.75
doggodgooddog	Yes	325.63	41.3%	$134.5
bbbbbbbbbbb	Yes	298.81	6.7%	$20
neonvibe	Yes	290.29	5.5%	$16
decerebral	Yes	288.89	5.4%	$15.5
tico85	Yes	248.96	16.0%	$39.95
9669	Yes	247.37	5.7%	$14
ngmai25	Yes	239.05	10.4%	$25
Serendipitous44	Yes	223.04	4.5%	$10
zachariase	Yes	210.44	4.8%	$10
alternativelog	Yes	209.83	4.8%	$10
dzzzq	Yes	209.33	7.2%	$15
Impossible-Tablecloth	Yes	204.07	9.8%	$20
TRUMPYYY	Yes	200	0.5%	$1	Jul 31, 8:21 PM UTC
True-Authority	Yes	200	5.2%	$10.4
0xJXvgFG2	Yes	190	2.1%	$3.99
kir123321	Yes	184.52	10.8%	$20
kingbert	Yes	174.57	5.1%	$9
faridn	Yes	172.63	9.8%	$17
derjubby	Yes	171.67	2.9%	$5
stephaneees	No	170	98.3%	$167.11	Jul 31, 4:18 PM UTC
La.Bruja.Lola.	Yes	169.92	14.7%	$25
tompet	Yes	167.88	13.0%	$21.75
beebles	Yes	166.67	3.0%	$5
Hawkk	Yes	153.34	4.7%	$7.24
Samtouch	Yes	151.33	14.0%	$21.18
earleking	Yes	145	1.4%	$2	Jul 31, 2:37 PM UTC
commerce-gij	Yes	133.33	15.0%	$20
loo0j	Yes	132.16	10.2%	$13.48
Bilout	Yes	118.42	7.6%	$9
least3	Yes	118.14	11.1%	$13.07
rotzbremser	Yes	108.7	4.6%	$5
isaaccharabati	Yes	108.11	3.7%	$4
Disastrous-Spite	Yes	100	3.0%	$3
walkingtall	Yes	100	12.8%	$12.77
kevin.nov	Yes	100	50.0%	$50
spilazzola	Yes	100	2.0%	$2	Jul 31, 1:27 PM UTC
FelixJames	Yes	93.78	21.3%	$20
konsultpappan	Yes	93.33	5.3%	$5
tommasos	Yes	91.74	10.9%	$10
Kailzer	Yes	90.43	22.1%	$19.98
shsyci	Yes	90	2.3%	$2.07
marcus2323	Yes	83.34	1.2%	$1	Jul 31, 3:38 PM UTC
riddleMeThis	Yes	83.23	12.0%	$10
sungjoo	Yes	82.57	24.2%	$20
kuranes90	Yes	75.76	6.6%	$5
derhuebsche	Yes	73.3	6.8%	$5
AION5101	Yes	70	32.2%	$22.54
systeem	Yes	67.8	5.9%	$4
nottinghill	Yes	67.57	7.4%	$5
tomt	Yes	59.7	6.7%	$4
Shocked-Howitzer	Yes	58.67	49.0%	$28.75
mikamu	Yes	51.25	9.8%	$5
Surnik	Yes	49.5	10.1%	$5
TokaPb19	Yes	46.07	12.2%	$5.6
vivalahuelga	Yes	44.43	22.4%	$9.96
roughkite7018	Yes	42.94	11.6%	$5
521212	Yes	41.67	2.4%	$1	Jul 31, 12:52 PM UTC
JVBH	Yes	41.46	9.6%	$3.98
ratcore	Yes	40.82	4.9%	$2
UnEmployedNL	Yes	40	10.0%	$4
polywallet	Yes	37.5	7.8%	$2.92
gogodollars	Yes	36.71	27.2%	$10
Ria1328	Yes	36.36	27.5%	$10
etnik	Yes	35.54	2.8%	$1
Chetaslua	Yes	31.46	31.8%	$10
alessaba	Yes	29.41	17.0%	$5
MattAndersen	Yes	27.78	3.6%	$1
Faquarl	Yes	26	23.0%	$5.98
ikoukas	Yes	25.64	3.9%	$1
hrant111	Yes	25.39	18.0%	$4.57
Corny-Elderberry	No	25	80.0%	$20
Foolhardy-Light	Yes	24.69	8.1%	$2
mpex	Yes	24	6.8%	$1.63
Audio	Yes	23	4.5%	$1.04
mmaarrkkuuss	Yes	21.04	4.8%	$1
winnercop	No	20.45	97.8%	$20	Jul 31, 4:12 PM UTC
trail	Yes	20.41	4.9%	$1
draftycorgi	Yes	20.41	4.9%	$1
unpin	Yes	20	50.0%	$10
Semeltheone	Yes	20	9.7%	$1.94
Tom1999	Yes	18.83	23.0%	$4.33
sergiobm	Yes	18.52	27.0%	$5
Merc9999	Yes	16.67	6.0%	$1
Debeselis	Yes	15.63	32.0%	$5
Raion1337	Yes	15.13	6.6%	$1
ZAHAOSH1A	Yes	14.29	14.0%	$2
zeony	Yes	14	7.1%	$0.99
Golden Quasar AA54	Yes	14	34.0%	$4.76
guessD	Yes	13.89	36.0%	$5
dfebrero	No	12.66	79.0%	$10
Juam	Yes	12.12	33.0%	$4
Steve123	Yes	10	4.0%	$0.4
marketmover-344	Yes	10	28.0%	$2.8
coffeepuppywoof	Yes	9.8	10.2%	$1
Azure Vector F177	Yes	9.68	31.0%	$3
Ivory Beacon 6759	Yes	9.68	31.0%	$3
R3CT333	Yes	9.38	32.0%	$3
Ivory Tide 6A05	Yes	9.09	33.0%	$3
Royal Atlas 8EDF	Yes	9.09	33.0%	$3
Jade Kestrel EBD8	Yes	8.82	34.0%	$3
Crimson Atlas 66A4	Yes	7.89	38.0%	$3
Mars9206	Yes	7.78	12.8%	$1
sotter	Yes	7.69	13.0%	$1
faffofoglia	Yes	7.69	26.0%	$2
junkluis	Yes	7.5	32.0%	$2.4
Coral Kestrel 2D48	Yes	7.5	40.0%	$3
Eldervoic	Yes	7.14	14.0%	$1
winnersdontsleep	Yes	6.67	15.0%	$1
justarandomguyfromal	Yes	6.67	15.0%	$1
Misty Oracle AEE4	Yes	6.45	31.0%	$2
Cosmic Kestrel A48D	Yes	6.45	31.0%	$2
Skeptixwonderer	Yes	6.45	31.0%	$2
Zbky	Yes	6.25	16.0%	$1
ortuob	No	6	95.8%	$5.75
Cobalt Kestrel 4DBD	Yes	5.71	35.0%	$2
Violet Comet E69E	Yes	5.71	35.0%	$2
fn7	Yes	5	25.0%	$1.25
aDrift	No	5	95.5%	$4.78
dusmif	No	5	96.0%	$4.8
snoreflex	No	5	94.0%	$4.7
Swift Falcon FD51	Yes	4.65	43.0%	$2
napoleone.buonaparte	Yes	4.63	30.0%	$1.39
Violet Sphinx 4E0F	Yes	4.55	44.0%	$2
Dominic4	No	4.34	92.2%	$4
RiotSpar	No	4.06	93.5%	$3.8
Dewhollow	No	4.03	93.2%	$3.76
cote	Yes	4	25.0%	$1
GrokvsFuture	Yes	3.85	26.0%	$1
ChatgptvsFuture	Yes	3.85	26.0%	$1
Gemini2.5PROvsFuture	Yes	3.85	26.0%	$1
puab	Yes	3.7	27.0%	$1
yoficina	Yes	3.7	27.0%	$1
BellCoding	No	3.34	93.2%	$3.11
just1betbro	Yes	3.33	30.0%	$1
Violet5	No	3.26	92.1%	$3
Waylon7	No	3.25	92.3%	$3
Quiet Summit 0B04	Yes	3.23	31.0%	$1
DarelManos	No	3.1	97.1%	$3.01
khawarinParis	No	3.09	96.8%	$2.99
Lunar Orbit 93C0	Yes	3.03	33.0%	$1
Coral Summit B9E1	Yes	2.94	34.0%	$1
Lunar Scout 357F	Yes	2.86	35.0%	$1
BrightBlaze	No	2.83	88.6%	$2.51
evra.Kalista	No	2.7	74.0%	$2
PulsarThief	No	2.6	93.5%	$2.43
otvetiktok	No	2.51	94.0%	$2.36
Tabithan	No	2.18	91.8%	$2
prvao	No	2.14	93.6%	$2
lieo	Yes	2	50.0%	$1
Elentha	Yes	2	48.0%	$0.96
pablo1615522	No	1.25	80.0%	$1
wincat	No	1.14	88.0%	$1
Cosmic Kestrel 81CC	No	1.05	95.2%	$1
Porlen	Yes	1	48.0%	$0.48

248 of 248 positions.

Holders by valueThe same holders, ranked by what their position is worth now.

Trader	Holding value
stephaneees	$170
Corny-Elderberry	$25
winnercop	$20.45

Analytics