Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Iran target a Arab country on August 5, 2026?Yes | buy | 83.75 | $0.182 | $15.25 | Aug 4, 2026 |
 |
| buy |
| 80 |
| $0.250 |
| $20 |
| Aug 3, 2026 |
| Iran successfully targets shipping on August 4, 2026?Yes | buy | 107.49 | $0.186 | $20 | Aug 3, 2026 |
 NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 201.57 | $0.130 | $26.29 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 201.57 | $0.099 | $20 | Jul 30, 2026 |
 Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Yes | sell | 599.01 | $0.069 | $41.38 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Yes | buy | 599.02 | $0.083 | $50 | Jul 29, 2026 |
 Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, 2026?Yes | buy | 438.93 | $0.228 | $100 | Jul 25, 2026 |
 Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Yes | sell | 1.02K | $0.080 | $81.63 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Yes | sell | 1.05K | $0.194 | $204.64 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Yes | buy | 1.05K | $0.190 | $200 | Jul 22, 2026 |
 Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?Yes | buy | 112.35 | $0.288 | $32.36 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Yes | sell | 606.06 | $0.284 | $172.02 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 21?Yes | buy | 762.9 | $0.039 | $30 | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 21?Yes | sell | 426.93 | $0.038 | $16.27 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 21?Yes | buy | 426.93 | $0.047 | $20 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Yes | buy | 1.02K | $0.098 | $100 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?Yes | buy | 621.22 | $0.048 | $30 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?Yes | buy | 428.24 | $0.047 | $20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Yes | buy | 606.06 | $0.330 | $200 | Jul 16, 2026 |
 Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by July 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 2.64K | $0.061 | $161.31 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Yes | sell | 918.26 | $0.130 | $119.37 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 643.08 | $0.039 | $25 | Jul 12, 2026 |
 Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.38K | $0.072 | $100 | Jul 12, 2026 |
| Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 2K | $0.030 | $60 | Jul 12, 2026 |
| Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.36K | $0.074 | $100 | Jul 12, 2026 |
 Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Yes | buy | 782 | $0.041 | $32 | Jul 12, 2026 |
 Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Yes | buy | 656.81 | $0.457 | $300 | Jul 12, 2026 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Yes | buy | 918.26 | $0.109 | $100 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28?Yes | sell | 628.75 | $0.060 | $37.73 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28?Yes | buy | 250 | $0.080 | $20 | Jun 27, 2026 |
| Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28?Yes | buy | 378.75 | $0.079 | $30 | Jun 27, 2026 |
| Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?Yes | buy | 450.95 | $0.089 | $40 | Jun 26, 2026 |
 Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?Yes | sell | 326.65 | $0.660 | $215.59 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?Yes | buy | 326.65 | $0.679 | $221.75 | Jun 17, 2026 |
 US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?No | buy | 2K | $0.002 | $4 | Jun 17, 2026 |
 Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes | sell | 604.26 | $0.103 | $62.26 | Jun 17, 2026 |
 Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No | sell | 2.57K | $0.294 | $755.66 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No | buy | 625 | $0.320 | $200 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No | buy | 939.53 | $0.319 | $300 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No | buy | 1K | $0.299 | $300 | Jun 16, 2026 |
 Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?No | buy | 520.15 | $0.192 | $100 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes | buy | 604.26 | $0.157 | $95 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?No | buy | 655.11 | $0.305 | $200 | Jun 16, 2026 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes | sell | 2.63K | $0.336 | $881.41 | Jun 14, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes | buy | 2.63K | $0.305 | $800 | Jun 14, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes | buy | 2.43K | $0.494 | $1.2K | Jun 14, 2026 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes | sell | 2.19K | $0.491 | $1.07K | Jun 14, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 2.19K | $0.549 | $1.2K | Jun 14, 2026 |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 14?Yes | buy | 1.72K | $0.145 | $250 | Jun 14, 2026 |