Analytics
Yes is at 4.6%, down 20 points from 25% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2025.
Across the 339 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 25 Oct 2026 (15 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 27% on 15 Nov 2025 and the lowest 3.3% on 22 Jun 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.4%; a month before, 4.4%. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 18% on 16 Nov 2025.
It is one of 11 markets under “Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?”.
$130.27K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $10.72K, with a 2.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $3.89K bought Yes and $38.1K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Jade Beacon E3EA with 152 shares; the largest No position is Scratchy-Forebear with 521. Ten wallets hold 52.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 1:00 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 339 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 25 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 25.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 4.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Scratchy-Forebear | No | 520.76 |
| Krass | No | 227.77 |
| Jade Beacon E3EA | Yes | 152.46 |
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-recognize-palestine-before-2027
| rocky42009 |
| Yes |
| 151 |
| RememberAmalek | Yes | 130.81 |
| Jade Vector CF97 | Yes | 108.7 |
| TheOne777 | No | 106.83 |
| BSS37 | Yes | 100 |
| Jobli | Yes | 97.93 |
| McL0v | No | 83.37 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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