Analytics
Yes is at 4.1%, down 39 points from 43.5% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2025.
Across the 334 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 25 Oct 2026 (20 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 56.5% on 24 Nov 2025 and the lowest 4.1% on 17 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.1%; a month before, 10%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 28% on 2 Jan 2026.
It is one of 11 markets under “Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?”.
$49.4K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $10.54K, with a 3.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $176.56 bought Yes and $3.08K bought No.
The largest Yes position is rocky42009 with 300 shares; the largest No position is ineedmassage with 330. Ten wallets hold 22.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 3:30 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 334 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 25 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 43.5% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 4.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ineedmassage | No | 329.9 |
| crossx | No | 309 |
| rocky42009 | Yes | 299.65 |
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-recognize-palestine-before-2027
| vitalitytens |
| Yes |
| 203.11 |
| macrosteaks | No | 200 |
| AJSV | Yes | 190.28 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 132.96 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 129.17 |
| Jade Beacon E3EA | Yes | 122.01 |
| TheOne777 | No | 120.63 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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