Will Curtis Sliwa drop out?

Name: Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? — implied probability history
License: https://vultax.com/legal/terms

Resolved

No, settled Nov 4, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$5.1M

Resolved

Settled

Nov 4, 2025 UTC

Positions left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Swift Oracle 13E3	Yes	162.28K	11.0%	$17.82K
Johnnybegood12	Yes	121.65K	6.0%	$7.29K
Trader4674	Yes	86.12K	8.6%	$7.44K
ILikeToGamble	Yes	67.68K	11.4%	$7.74K
OkieDokie	Yes	66.3K	0.3%	$200.82	Nov 3, 11:24 PM UTC
theguy0001	Yes	65.15K	14.4%	$9.37K
captainrugmuncher	Yes	63.91K	7.9%	$5.06K
booboo	Yes	61.56K	0.5%	$307.81	Nov 3, 7:59 PM UTC
SammySledge	Yes	58.4K	8.9%	$5.19K
Brianlolz	Yes	53.76K	9.3%	$4.99K
Wwwwwwe	Yes	42.05K	11.6%	$4.89K
jaja5050	Yes	25.29K	4.3%	$1.09K
ecofrgrance	Yes	24.5K	0.2%	$49	Nov 3, 11:07 PM UTC
Unhappy-Denim	Yes	20.63K	0.4%	$79.07	Nov 3, 2:16 PM UTC
Testytt	Yes	18.38K	0.9%	$165.99	Nov 4, 1:16 AM UTC
godblessnyc	Yes	16.52K	0.4%	$67.32	Nov 4, 3:16 AM UTC
LOLGGEZ	Yes	16.48K	0.4%	$75.79	Nov 4, 12:34 AM UTC
SD4W3	Yes	16K	0.4%	$64
domthedegen	Yes	14.45K	0.7%	$100	Nov 3, 9:27 PM UTC
electionb	Yes	13.8K	0.5%	$71.68	Nov 4, 2:44 AM UTC
Flavius	Yes	11.61K	0.6%	$74.99	Nov 4, 2:40 AM UTC
Sic	Yes	11.37K	1.0%	$113.69
futureisyours	Yes	10.4K	2.9%	$299.99
QuantumComputerInc	Yes	10K	17.6%	$1.76K
maximao	Yes	9.72K	20.5%	$1.99K
Cosmic Orbit 983A	Yes	8.6K	0.2%	$17.4	Nov 4, 12:02 AM UTC
sposta	Yes	8.29K	0.6%	$49.99	Nov 3, 9:10 PM UTC
Drpxl	Yes	8.23K	20.6%	$1.7K
REKT	Yes	7.48K	0.5%	$39.99	Nov 4, 2:11 AM UTC
0xPolymath	Yes	7.24K	18.1%	$1.31K
OuchMyBalls	Yes	6.5K	0.1%	$6.99	Nov 4, 5:09 AM UTC
slowdime	Yes	5.11K	20.9%	$1.07K
ajm.mx	Yes	5K	0.1%	$5	Nov 4, 4:38 AM UTC
moldbugger	Yes	4.69K	21.3%	$997
Liten	Yes	4.45K	1.1%	$50	Nov 3, 8:30 PM UTC
Frozen-Fibre	Yes	4K	6.3%	$250
hgvtyd8fvb	Yes	3.85K	6.5%	$249.83
Bortegamyo	Yes	3.5K	1.8%	$63
CiscoM	Yes	3.46K	2.8%	$97
bradlind	Yes	3.34K	8.4%	$280
Spirited-Shame	Yes	3.33K	0.3%	$10	Nov 3, 11:28 PM UTC
13klklas	Yes	3.33K	0.3%	$10.01
miladymaker	Yes	3.32K	0.7%	$23.25	Nov 3, 8:46 PM UTC
Male-Pollutant	Yes	3.32K	3.0%	$100
WhiteLivesMatter	Yes	3.13K	14.9%	$466.2
Newuser2	Yes	3.13K	9.8%	$305.25
trousaz	Yes	3.01K	27.3%	$820
ChadWoodstock	Yes	3K	0.9%	$27
ngdbv	Yes	3K	0.4%	$12
bestiadincarpati	Yes	3K	0.7%	$21
tofurkey12	Yes	3K	2.7%	$81
dresden77	Yes	2.72K	36.7%	$1K
Captain_Kong	Yes	2.68K	4.1%	$110	Nov 3, 8:49 PM UTC
xq1	Yes	2.55K	3.9%	$99.79
chickenben	Yes	2.31K	0.8%	$19	Nov 3, 2:13 PM UTC
fang202311	Yes	2K	0.1%	$2	Nov 4, 4:39 AM UTC
sc00ter	Yes	2K	25.0%	$500
GayPride	Yes	2K	13.5%	$270
terribletrader99	Yes	1.85K	10.8%	$199
neged4	Yes	1.8K	0.5%	$9
Ill-Fated-Agriculture	Yes	1.67K	8.7%	$145.12
Outlandish-Dueling	Yes	1.67K	0.6%	$10	Nov 4, 2:14 AM UTC
Bokeating	Yes	1.67K	0.6%	$10	Nov 3, 9:29 PM UTC
joat88	Yes	1.66K	0.6%	$9.98	Nov 4, 2:49 AM UTC
hehhhhhhhhh	Yes	1.66K	0.6%	$10	Nov 4, 2:31 AM UTC
Da6tradings	Yes	1.62K	9.1%	$148.29
Marvelous-Haze	Yes	1.46K	13.7%	$200
Flamboyant-Field	Yes	1.4K	0.5%	$7	Nov 4, 3:37 AM UTC
bigdickprick	Yes	1.4K	0.8%	$11.2
DianeTX	Yes	1.4K	7.1%	$100
katiga	Yes	1.3K	0.7%	$9.25
donglai66	Yes	1.28K	15.6%	$199.63
gopfan2	Yes	1.25K	13.3%	$166.47
Welderman	Yes	1.25K	0.4%	$5	Nov 4, 3:08 AM UTC
WosJ	Yes	1.25K	0.4%	$5	Nov 3, 9:07 PM UTC
Autus	Yes	1.18K	13.6%	$161.44
vamnizar	Yes	1.15K	1.9%	$22.01
Sidthekid95	Yes	1.13K	6.3%	$71
Internal-Editing	Yes	1.11K	0.9%	$10
Str8face	Yes	1.02K	4.5%	$46
LacheFlausache	Yes	1.01K	6.4%	$65
TheFuture11	Yes	1K	0.3%	$3	Nov 3, 10:07 PM UTC
ASA1	Yes	1K	0.8%	$8
Ssss112	Yes	1K	0.5%	$5	Nov 3, 1:48 PM UTC
martinknox	Yes	1K	0.4%	$4
yizhiyang-jianlaji	Yes	1K	3.7%	$37
JennyFlower	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1
Monopoly_Money	Yes	999.98	14.0%	$140
rick-025	Yes	916	22.5%	$206.48
Thunderous-Quantity	Yes	806.59	0.8%	$6.5	Nov 3, 4:32 PM UTC
ghost3d	Yes	776.92	1.3%	$10	Nov 3, 8:12 PM UTC
Keen Beacon 9549	Yes	770.71	0.0%	$0
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	765	0.1%	$0.77
Bulbasaur15	Yes	763.39	28.8%	$220
manofthepeople	Yes	686	27.7%	$189.72
Snoring	Yes	648.99	0.9%	$5.99
Ishial	Yes	638.75	0.8%	$5.01	Nov 4, 1:39 AM UTC
inexperiencedmarketmaker	Yes	630	0.8%	$5.04
NonGrata	Yes	600	0.5%	$3
chico1	Yes	596.31	41.9%	$250
BDigicrypto	Yes	592.59	27.0%	$160
avl2315	Yes	566.84	1.9%	$10.77
RM4	Yes	556.67	0.6%	$3.34
DaPunk	Yes	501.13	16.0%	$80
jemskii	Yes	500	11.0%	$55
phreshmoney	Yes	500	0.2%	$1	Nov 3, 10:33 PM UTC
basednick	Yes	483.68	16.6%	$80.33
TzunDo	Yes	481.34	30.3%	$145.77
fnma	Yes	473.84	19.0%	$90.03
kathymayeko	Yes	451	1.8%	$8.12
SliwacampaignNYC	Yes	433.68	1.9%	$8.24
stupiddude	Yes	431.67	8.3%	$35.84
yuuuuuuu	Yes	374.79	26.7%	$100
Elikarp	Yes	373.75	0.8%	$2.99
markharris	Yes	346	0.7%	$2.42
jamay2	Yes	345.89	28.9%	$100
kirdy	Yes	339	2.9%	$10
jenyaglor	Yes	333.33	0.3%	$1	Nov 3, 11:29 PM UTC
HAMAS4444	Yes	325	1.0%	$3.15	Nov 3, 11:50 PM UTC
pokies	Yes	323.68	30.9%	$100
NikeZoldyck	Yes	322.83	6.2%	$20
Merlot	Yes	300	32.7%	$98
gandalf	Yes	299.95	16.0%	$47.99
Slippery-Knuckle	Yes	292.59	2.1%	$6	Nov 4, 3:38 AM UTC
dddtrips	Yes	281.23	23.1%	$65
infinitesimal	Yes	280	1.0%	$2.8
Bright Signal 14DE	Yes	277	0.1%	$0.28
motomami	Yes	255.55	13.7%	$35
lazblo	Yes	253.65	7.9%	$20
wernershelley	Yes	252	0.7%	$1.76
Tommaiyy	Yes	250	0.4%	$1	Nov 3, 8:58 PM UTC
Criminal-Episode	Yes	250	0.4%	$1
WeskeMaat	Yes	250	0.4%	$1
MasonsConqueredRome	Yes	250	9.0%	$22.5
potterlaura	Yes	237	0.7%	$1.66
nonefungible	Yes	236.6	16.9%	$40
Pretty-Keeper	Yes	225	20.0%	$45
Yourfavdegen	Yes	222.22	0.9%	$2	Nov 3, 4:07 PM UTC
thatone	Yes	222.22	0.9%	$2
Kristof20	Yes	212	6.5%	$13.78
Webbed-Charlatan	Yes	208	0.5%	$1.04
maxleverage90	Yes	200	0.5%	$1	Nov 3, 7:40 PM UTC
Golden Raven 1501	Yes	200	0.5%	$1	Nov 4, 2:10 AM UTC
wudihuli	Yes	200	0.5%	$1	Nov 3, 7:49 PM UTC
Useful-Uniform	Yes	200	0.5%	$1	Nov 4, 3:39 AM UTC
ExcellentBoy	Yes	200	0.5%	$1
Optimal-Stinger	Yes	200	0.5%	$1	Nov 3, 8:54 PM UTC
nahtus	Yes	200	0.5%	$1	Nov 4, 3:36 AM UTC
KamekichiCapital	Yes	200	0.6%	$1.2
Kuddi	Yes	200	0.5%	$1
Scary-Premise	Yes	200	11.0%	$22
ianbatts	Yes	190	0.7%	$1.42	Nov 4, 12:41 AM UTC
downsbryan	Yes	187	0.5%	$0.94
0xe9f0	Yes	186.8	25.0%	$46.7
Quiet Falcon 70A1	Yes	185.19	5.4%	$10
Comfy1	Yes	183.88	21.6%	$39.8
OKA91	Yes	181.85	1.1%	$2	Nov 4, 12:36 AM UTC
cassandrahoward	Yes	177	0.7%	$1.24	Nov 3, 8:27 PM UTC
Schizo	Yes	172.41	29.0%	$50
shillafromindia	Yes	170.01	0.6%	$1.02	Nov 4, 2:46 AM UTC
wafflestomper69	Yes	170	0.6%	$1.02
chaoren1113	Yes	166.67	0.6%	$1
5qau	Yes	166.67	0.6%	$1	Nov 4, 2:42 AM UTC
jvargas	Yes	164	0.7%	$1.15
rneal	Yes	158	0.6%	$0.95
patekkk23	Yes	157.41	5.4%	$8.5
julia75	Yes	157	0.7%	$1.1
Shnoxy	Yes	155.56	27.0%	$42
OnlyyWins	Yes	150	0.7%	$1.05	Nov 3, 8:49 PM UTC
yeeeep	Yes	142.86	0.7%	$1	Nov 3, 9:10 PM UTC
Arpagoni	Yes	142.86	0.7%	$1	Nov 3, 8:48 PM UTC
Round-Cclamp	Yes	142.86	0.7%	$1	Nov 3, 9:28 PM UTC
Second-Full	Yes	142.86	0.7%	$1
Bare-Text	Yes	130.43	23.0%	$30
Afuera	Yes	130	16.0%	$20.8
heehy38	Yes	130	15.0%	$19.5
BobtheRiverMonster	Yes	129.03	31.0%	$40
PollyParrot	Yes	126.58	7.9%	$10
kovric	Yes	125	0.8%	$1
Nomadee	Yes	125	16.0%	$20
Substantial-Heel	Yes	125	0.8%	$1
Sin088	Yes	117.65	17.0%	$20
fanfini	Yes	111.74	2.7%	$3
saurois	Yes	111.11	0.9%	$1
gieme	Yes	111.11	0.9%	$1	Nov 3, 3:29 PM UTC
ntpp	Yes	111.11	18.0%	$20
Rosy-Bend	Yes	109.96	14.0%	$15.39
ApeTonight	Yes	107.94	9.3%	$10
Tremendous-Clavier	Yes	107.04	0.9%	$1
OkaneKasegu	Yes	100	26.0%	$26
Rfk	Yes	100	2.9%	$2.9
user6969	Yes	100	18.0%	$18
kingonchain	Yes	97.67	20.5%	$20
qwfdgfhdfhfdg	Yes	94.55	1.1%	$1
Black-Laughter	Yes	93.86	8.7%	$8.17
TrizzNah9	Yes	90.91	1.1%	$1
TexasBoy	Yes	90.91	1.1%	$1
bighandsome	Yes	90.91	11.0%	$10
Kosher-Alcohol	Yes	90.83	16.5%	$15
GRAFivi	Yes	88.35	5.7%	$5
nolopzs	Yes	87.72	5.7%	$5
Lvss	Yes	83.33	1.2%	$1
klinedarrell	Yes	82	0.3%	$0.25
linda86	Yes	82	0.3%	$0.25
OjimaKentaro	Yes	78.95	3.8%	$3
Zender9	Yes	75.05	5.3%	$4
Shitcoinsniper	Yes	69.2	45.6%	$31.57
nsymis	Yes	65.91	7.6%	$5
S888	Yes	65	11.2%	$7.3
jj0ffice	Yes	64.23	30.0%	$19.27
Jade Harbor B075	Yes	63	0.1%	$0.06
coffeeholic	Yes	62.5	16.0%	$10
Emerald Pioneer D14A	Yes	62	0.1%	$0.06
randomWalkingShrimp	Yes	59.78	18.0%	$10.76
Plyrekt	Yes	57.14	35.0%	$20
oxCoco	Yes	56.82	8.8%	$5
Flowery-Jug	Yes	56.31	35.5%	$20
2solami	Yes	55.72	28.7%	$16
Fine-Spending	Yes	55.56	1.8%	$1
singhmark	Yes	55	0.4%	$0.22
Violet Vector B233	Yes	55	8.9%	$4.88
johns0n	Yes	54.17	18.5%	$10
Sudden-Chasuble	Yes	53.57	5.6%	$3
underdogdave	Yes	52.83	5.7%	$3
Second-Hand-Attitude	Yes	52.63	1.9%	$1
Agentorange	Yes	52.63	1.9%	$1
Simplistic-Hyena	Yes	52.15	5.8%	$3
Crimson Vector F03A	Yes	52	0.1%	$0.05
Negative-Hold	Yes	50	30.0%	$15
tomatosauce	Yes	50	0.6%	$0.3
knightwitcher	Yes	45.01	17.0%	$7.65
narwan	Yes	45	19.0%	$8.55
Bold Scout BD7E	Yes	44	0.1%	$0.04
Boredland069	Yes	43.48	2.3%	$1
nmikhael	Yes	42.86	7.0%	$3
Maniac25	Yes	41.67	16.8%	$7
Sol400	Yes	38.47	26.0%	$10
Spirited-Happening	Yes	38.46	2.6%	$1
Useful-Terracotta	No	38.42	97.3%	$37.38
outfielder	Yes	35.71	2.8%	$1
MattEstate	Yes	35.71	5.6%	$2
deadbeat	Yes	35.71	2.8%	$1
jon-doe	Yes	34.48	2.9%	$1
blastyo	Yes	34.48	2.9%	$1
pgreco	Yes	34.48	29.0%	$10
Chumito	Yes	33.97	2.9%	$1
Svitovid	Yes	33.33	30.0%	$10
ggds5511	Yes	32.26	3.1%	$1
Unselfish-Chili	Yes	31.06	32.2%	$10
Irritating-Mouth	Yes	30.77	6.5%	$2
Guapo	Yes	29.41	3.4%	$1
ismakenya4	Yes	29.41	3.4%	$1
SnowTexican	Yes	29.41	17.0%	$5
Crimson Quasar 608B	Yes	29.09	6.9%	$2
Carbonjun	Yes	28.99	8.6%	$2.5
redknapp	Yes	25.9	3.9%	$1
spoobs	Yes	25	4.0%	$1
Ernmore	Yes	25	9.0%	$2.25
daledantony	Yes	25	20.0%	$5
LunrLander	Yes	24.63	8.7%	$2.14
Bbb26	Yes	23.97	4.2%	$1
0xRysk	Yes	20.83	24.0%	$5
hunterxrich	Yes	20.63	9.7%	$2
Emerald Kestrel FC78	Yes	20	0.0%	$0
Bruhski	Yes	20	24.0%	$4.8
parnyam67	Yes	20	5.0%	$1
pmpa	Yes	20	25.0%	$5
PraisingPepe	Yes	19	22.0%	$4.18
x100x100	Yes	18.18	5.5%	$1
VladikDurev	Yes	17.86	5.6%	$1
tijnl	Yes	17.86	5.6%	$1
N04m	Yes	17.65	17.0%	$3
NBAchamp	Yes	17.28	5.8%	$1
dfdfsdfdsffsdfsdf	Yes	17.24	29.0%	$5
moldybutt	Yes	16.95	5.9%	$1
winloserug	Yes	16.3	20.0%	$3.26
Sehei	Yes	16.13	6.2%	$1
marcus-stone	Yes	15.38	6.5%	$1
Brenka127	Yes	15	20.0%	$3
MarcosCardoso	Yes	14.29	7.0%	$1
bs259082	Yes	14.29	7.0%	$1
DoOoRex	Yes	13.33	7.5%	$1
4759	Yes	13.33	15.0%	$2
tnols	Yes	13.33	30.0%	$4
oraclelachy	Yes	13.33	15.0%	$2
plopper	Yes	12.82	7.8%	$1
Tragic-Doctor	Yes	12.66	7.9%	$1
floweth	Yes	12.05	8.3%	$1
0xForseti	Yes	11.76	29.0%	$3.41
Solar Meteor 7A9A	Yes	11	0.1%	$0.01
Gray-Lettuce	Yes	10.34	29.0%	$3
MaestroSam	Yes	10	20.0%	$2
Blind Chicken	Yes	10	29.8%	$2.98
nostradamic	Yes	10	34.0%	$3.4
Vilipp	Yes	7.69	26.0%	$2
BreadNova	Yes	7.69	13.0%	$1
nftmetaverses	Yes	7.04	14.2%	$1
C0nsul	Yes	6.25	16.0%	$1
Listening	Yes	6.25	16.0%	$1
jdssolo	Yes	6.25	16.0%	$1
sabonete	Yes	6.02	16.6%	$1
Every-Bronco	Yes	5.56	18.0%	$1
Elcucuyvidar	Yes	5.13	39.0%	$2
rflows1	Yes	5	20.0%	$1
dsgvfn41538zcx	Yes	5	0.1%	$0.01
90ne	Yes	5	0.1%	$0.01
jgvgjvhjvhjv25bfuj	Yes	5	0.1%	$0.01
PacoSour	Yes	5	20.0%	$1
cxjakfd325	Yes	5	0.1%	$0.01
dsfasfdasd12424	Yes	5	0.1%	$0.01
Sphero	Yes	4.35	23.0%	$1
oak	Yes	4	5.9%	$0.24
pinklepunk	Yes	3.81	16.0%	$0.61
Remarkable-Choosing	Yes	3.13	32.0%	$1
OjimaKentaro	No	3.11	96.5%	$3
Steep-Potty	No	2.3	87.0%	$2
Neon Comet 0E19	Yes	2.08	0.0%	$0
Impure-Contour	Yes	1.5	8.0%	$0.12
Mur.	No	1.35	74.0%	$1
cmiguel	No	1.27	79.0%	$1
Sisio	No	1.14	88.0%	$1
CoolBeans420	Yes	0.82	0.4%	$0	Nov 3, 8:59 PM UTC

322 of 322 positions.

Holders by valueThe same holders, ranked by what their position is worth now.

Trader	Holding value
Useful-Terracotta	$38.42
Steep-Potty	$2.3
Mur.	$1.35

Analytics