Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?No | buy | 66.32 | $0.930 | $61.68 | Apr 1, 2026 |
|
| sell |
| 61.74 |
| $0.999 |
| $61.68 |
| Apr 1, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?No | buy | 61.75 | $0.910 | $56.19 | Mar 16, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?No | buy | 56.19 | $0.930 | $52.26 | Mar 8, 2026 |
 US forces enter Iran by March 7?No | buy | 52.26 | $0.984 | $51.42 | Mar 7, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?No | buy | 51.42 | $0.969 | $49.83 | Mar 3, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?No | buy | 49.83 | $0.994 | $49.53 | Mar 2, 2026 |
 Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?Yes | sell | 12.04 | $0.018 | $0.22 | Mar 2, 2026 |
 Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Yes | sell | 58.82 | $0.109 | $6.41 | Mar 2, 2026 |
 Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes | sell | 115.54 | $0.150 | $17.33 | Mar 2, 2026 |
 Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?Yes | sell | 62.5 | $0.162 | $10.12 | Mar 2, 2026 |
 Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?No | buy | 15.45 | $0.992 | $15.33 | Feb 28, 2026 |
 US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No | buy | 15.33 | $0.929 | $14.24 | Feb 27, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No | buy | 14.24 | $0.983 | $14 | Feb 26, 2026 |
 Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?Yes | sell | 40 | $0.350 | $14 | Feb 22, 2026 |
 Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?No | buy | 1.13K | $0.164 | $184.81 | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?No | buy | 39.19 | $0.160 | $6.27 | Feb 5, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes | sell | 6.45 | $0.971 | $6.26 | Feb 5, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?Yes | buy | 15.71 | $0.064 | $1 | Feb 1, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.050 | $1 | Feb 1, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?Yes | buy | 28.4 | $0.035 | $1 | Feb 1, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?Yes | buy | 37.04 | $0.027 | $1 | Feb 1, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?Yes | buy | 386.76 | $0.010 | $4 | Feb 1, 2026 |
 ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?Yes | sell | 50 | $0.160 | $8 | Feb 1, 2026 |
 Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 22.73 | $0.220 | $5 | Feb 1, 2026 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes | buy | 6.45 | $0.930 | $6 | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?No | buy | 38.89 | $0.180 | $7 | Jan 29, 2026 |
 Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Yes | buy | 300 | $0.025 | $7.5 | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes | buy | 44.12 | $0.170 | $7.5 | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?No | buy | 35.4 | $0.198 | $7 | Jan 28, 2026 |
 US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first?US Strikes Iran | buy | 36.19 | $0.193 | $7 | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?No | buy | 53.85 | $0.130 | $7 | Jan 27, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 99.44 | $0.018 | $1.79 | Jan 24, 2026 |
 Will the US strike Iran next?Yes | buy | 60 | $0.150 | $9 | Jan 24, 2026 |
 Will Don Lemon be criminally charged?No | buy | 18 | $0.500 | $9 | Jan 23, 2026 |
 Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?No | buy | 14.06 | $0.640 | $9 | Jan 23, 2026 |
 Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 90.9 | $0.200 | $18.18 | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Will Don Lemon be criminally charged?Yes | sell | 32 | $0.500 | $16 | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?Yes | buy | 12.05 | $0.083 | $1 | Jan 21, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Khamenei" during WEF Address on January 21?Yes | buy | 17.39 | $0.460 | $8 | Jan 21, 2026 |
 Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 21, 2026?Yes | buy | 45.1 | $0.022 | $1 | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Yes | buy | 230.64 | $0.035 | $8 | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Will Don Lemon be criminally charged?Yes | buy | 32 | $0.250 | $8 | Jan 20, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Nobel" this week? (January 25)Yes | buy | 14 | $0.714 | $10 | Jan 19, 2026 |
| Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Yes | buy | 29.4 | $0.340 | $10 | Jan 18, 2026 |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Yes | buy | 111.11 | $0.090 | $10 | Jan 16, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.300 | $15 | Jan 15, 2026 |
 Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?Yes | sell | 125 | $0.090 | $11.25 | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Will the US strike Syria next?Yes | buy | 136.78 | $0.007 | $1 | Jan 14, 2026 |
 Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?Yes | buy | 51.72 | $0.290 | $15 | Jan 13, 2026 |