Latest trade
Oct 15, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 24, 5:57 PM UTC.
Analytics
Simplistic-Casement is down $69.7 on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 20 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-09-01 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Oct 15, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 24, 5:57 PM UTC.
$1 median trade
Its latest 50 trades covered 39 markets; 82.0% were buys. They run from Jul 15, 2026 UTC to Oct 15, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 365.48 | $0.326 | $100.51 | -$18.49 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes | buy | 32.14 | $0.280 | $9 | 9d ago |
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-09-01 06:06 UTC
Polymarket public position response
24 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-24 17:57 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
50 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-24 17:57 UTC
polymarket positions
21 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-09-01 06:06 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $92.25 and losing ones cost $12.19 across 20 settled positions. 75% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $20.91 on “Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” (No); the largest loss, $5.11 on “Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?” (Yes).
Its most recent trade on record was on 15 Oct 2026. It has traded 92 markets. Its open positions are worth $120.52 across 24 markets.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| Yes |
| 14.29 |
| $0.140 |
| $2.93 |
| +$0.93 |
 Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? | Yes | 76.39 | $0.026 | $2.48 | +$0.48 |
 Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 9.52 | $0.210 | $1.39 | -$0.61 |
 Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 9.09 | $0.220 | $1.23 | -$0.77 |
 Will Amcha Yisrael win 4-6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | Yes | 4.55 | $0.440 | $1.16 | -$0.84 |
 Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? | Yes | 12.5 | $0.160 | $1.14 | -$0.86 |
 Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | Yes | 22.22 | $0.090 | $1.11 | -$0.89 |
 Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes | 11.11 | $0.090 | $0.94 | -$0.06 |
| Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | Yes | 1.28 | $0.780 | $0.88 | -$0.12 |
 Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | Yes | 8.33 | $0.120 | $0.87 | -$0.13 |
 Will UTJ win fewer than 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | Yes | 4.35 | $0.230 | $0.82 | -$0.18 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 14.29 | $0.070 | $0.79 | -$0.21 |
 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 6.25 | $0.320 | $0.56 | -$1.44 |
 Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 23.81 | $0.042 | $0.55 | -$0.45 |
 Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31? | Yes | 9.09 | $0.220 | $0.55 | -$1.45 |
 Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? | Yes | 3.45 | $0.290 | $0.53 | -$0.47 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 9.52 | $0.210 | $0.52 | -$1.48 |
 Israel election: will Likud lose seats? | No | 11 | $0.091 | $0.46 | -$0.54 |
 Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | Yes | 3.98 | $0.251 | $0.32 | -$0.68 |
 Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | Yes | 4.17 | $0.240 | $0.31 | -$0.69 |
 US announces military base in Israel in 2026? | Yes | 4 | $0.250 | $0.18 | -$0.82 |
 U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31? | Yes | 5 | $0.200 | $0.18 | -$0.83 |
| Will Amcha Yisrael win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | Yes | 16.67 | $0.060 | $0.1 | -$0.9 |
| buy |
| 1.28 |
| $0.780 |
| $1 |
| 14d ago |
| Will Amcha Yisrael win 4-6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes | buy | 4.55 | $0.440 | $2 | 14d ago |
| Will UTJ win fewer than 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes | buy | 4.35 | $0.230 | $1 | Sep 6, 2026 UTC |
 Israel Election: Yashar & Together Run on Same List?Yes | buy | 20.43 | $0.049 | $1 | Sep 6, 2026 UTC |
| Will Amcha Yisrael win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes | buy | 16.67 | $0.060 | $1 | Sep 6, 2026 UTC |
| Israel election: will Likud lose seats?No | buy | 11 | $0.091 | $1 | Sep 6, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes | buy | 14.29 | $0.070 | $1 | Sep 6, 2026 UTC |
| Iran leadership change by November 30?Yes | buy | 11.11 | $0.090 | $1 | Sep 6, 2026 UTC |
 Israel closes its airspace by September 30?No | buy | 6.06 | $0.330 | $2 | Sep 6, 2026 UTC |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?Yes | buy | 68.7 | $0.015 | $1 | Sep 6, 2026 UTC |
 Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 83.33 | $0.012 | $1 | Aug 19, 2026 UTC |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Yes | sell | 12.5 | $0.740 | $9.25 | Aug 5, 2026 UTC |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Yes | buy | 8.33 | $0.120 | $1 | Aug 3, 2026 UTC |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 9.09 | $0.220 | $2 | Aug 3, 2026 UTC |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?Yes | buy | 3.45 | $0.290 | $1 | Aug 3, 2026 UTC |
| Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31?Yes | buy | 9.09 | $0.220 | $2 | Aug 3, 2026 UTC |
| U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.200 | $1 | Aug 3, 2026 UTC |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31Yes | buy | 4.17 | $0.240 | $1 | Aug 3, 2026 UTC |
 Iran full airspace closure by September 30?Yes | buy | 13.79 | $0.290 | $4 | Aug 3, 2026 UTC |
| US announces military base in Israel in 2026?Yes | buy | 4 | $0.250 | $1 | Aug 3, 2026 UTC |
 Israel military action against Yemen by August 31?Yes | buy | 11.91 | $0.084 | $1 | Aug 3, 2026 UTC |
| Israel military action against Yemen by August 31?Yes | buy | 12.5 | $0.080 | $1 | Aug 3, 2026 UTC |
 Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?Yes | buy | 5.88 | $0.170 | $1 | Aug 3, 2026 UTC |
 Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 12.5 | $0.080 | $1 | Jul 21, 2026 UTC |
 Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.050 | $1 | Jul 21, 2026 UTC |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes | buy | 3.98 | $0.251 | $1 | Jul 19, 2026 UTC |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?Yes | buy | 5.56 | $0.180 | $1 | Jul 19, 2026 UTC |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 12.5 | $0.240 | $3 | Jul 19, 2026 UTC |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 16.67 | $0.120 | $2 | Jul 19, 2026 UTC |
 Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No | sell | 10.6 | $0.840 | $8.9 | Jul 18, 2026 UTC |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | sell | 8.84 | $0.590 | $5.22 | Jul 18, 2026 UTC |
 Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?No | sell | 5.56 | $0.850 | $4.73 | Jul 17, 2026 UTC |
| Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No | sell | 9.4 | $0.678 | $6.37 | Jul 17, 2026 UTC |
| Will Trump’s remarks not air?Yes | buy | 111.11 | $0.009 | $1 | Jul 16, 2026 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" during Speech to the Nation?Yes | buy | 6.25 | $0.320 | $2 | Jul 16, 2026 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Fake News" during Speech to the Nation?Yes | buy | 3.03 | $0.330 | $1 | Jul 16, 2026 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Iran" or "Iranian" 20+ times during Speech to the Nation?Yes | buy | 9.09 | $0.110 | $1 | Jul 16, 2026 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Million," "Billion," or "Trillion" 20+ times during Speech to the Nation?Yes | buy | 4.55 | $0.220 | $1 | Jul 16, 2026 UTC |
| Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?No | sell | 5.55 | $0.710 | $3.94 | Jul 16, 2026 UTC |
 Will England win on 2026-07-15?Yes | sell | 6.06 | $0.632 | $3.83 | Jul 15, 2026 UTC |
| Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?Yes | buy | 3.54 | $0.283 | $1 | Jul 15, 2026 UTC |
| Will England win on 2026-07-15?Yes | buy | 6.06 | $0.330 | $2 | Jul 15, 2026 UTC |
| Will England win on 2026-07-15?Yes | sell | 31.76 | $0.323 | $10.24 | Jul 15, 2026 UTC |
| Will England win on 2026-07-15?Yes | buy | 26.09 | $0.345 | $9 | Jul 15, 2026 UTC |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?No | sell | 12.37 | $0.730 | $9.03 | Jul 15, 2026 UTC |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?No | buy | 12.37 | $0.727 | $9 | Jul 15, 2026 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" during Speech to the Nation?Yes | buy | 7.64 | $0.262 | $2 | Jul 15, 2026 UTC |
| Will Trump’s remarks not air?Yes | buy | 25 | $0.040 | $1 | Jul 15, 2026 UTC |
| Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 14.29 | $0.140 | $2 | Jul 15, 2026 UTC |
4 of 6 axes ranked against the 121 wallets on the Radar board (crypto positions observed 2026-09-20); the others stay on fixed scales, as each axis says. Not drawn for this wallet: 2 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.