Analytics
Simplistic-Casement is down $69.7 on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 20 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-09-01 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 365.48 | $0.326 | $100.51 | -$18.49 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
This view does not establish the wallet’s complete trading history.
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-09-01 06:06 UTC
Polymarket public position response
24 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-24 21:43 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
Recent fills unavailable
2026-10-24 21:43 UTC
polymarket positions
21 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-09-01 06:06 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $92.25 and losing ones cost $12.19 across 20 settled positions. 75% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $20.91 on “Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” (No); the largest loss, $5.11 on “Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?” (Yes).
It has traded 92 markets. Its open positions are worth $120.83 across 24 markets.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| Yes |
| 14.29 |
| $0.140 |
| $2.64 |
| +$0.64 |
 Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? | Yes | 76.39 | $0.026 | $2.48 | +$0.48 |
 Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 9.52 | $0.210 | $1.42 | -$0.58 |
 Will Amcha Yisrael win 4-6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | Yes | 4.55 | $0.440 | $1.36 | -$0.64 |
 Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 9.09 | $0.220 | $1.23 | -$0.77 |
 Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? | Yes | 12.5 | $0.160 | $1.18 | -$0.82 |
 Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | Yes | 22.22 | $0.090 | $1.11 | -$0.89 |
 Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes | 11.11 | $0.090 | $0.94 | -$0.06 |
 Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | Yes | 8.33 | $0.120 | $0.87 | -$0.13 |
 Will UTJ win fewer than 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | Yes | 4.35 | $0.230 | $0.82 | -$0.18 |
| Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | Yes | 1.28 | $0.780 | $0.81 | -$0.19 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 14.29 | $0.070 | $0.79 | -$0.21 |
 Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 23.81 | $0.042 | $0.74 | -$0.26 |
 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 6.25 | $0.320 | $0.66 | -$1.34 |
 Israel election: will Likud lose seats? | No | 11 | $0.091 | $0.57 | -$0.43 |
 Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31? | Yes | 9.09 | $0.220 | $0.55 | -$1.45 |
 Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? | Yes | 3.45 | $0.290 | $0.53 | -$0.47 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 9.52 | $0.210 | $0.52 | -$1.48 |
 Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | Yes | 3.98 | $0.251 | $0.31 | -$0.69 |
 Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | Yes | 4.17 | $0.240 | $0.31 | -$0.69 |
 US announces military base in Israel in 2026? | Yes | 4 | $0.250 | $0.18 | -$0.82 |
 U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31? | Yes | 5 | $0.200 | $0.18 | -$0.83 |
| Will Amcha Yisrael win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | Yes | 16.67 | $0.060 | $0.1 | -$0.9 |
Placed on fixed scales: no Radar board ranking was cached on this server when the profile was read, so no archetype is claimed. Not drawn for this wallet: 2 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.
