Analytics
Yes is at 5.5%, down 60 points from 65% when the market opened on 24 Jun 2026.
Across the 122 daily closes on record from 24 Jun 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 67.5% on 26 Jun 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 6 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 7.5%; a month before, 13%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 47.5% on 27 Jun 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?”.
$2.25 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $534.28K since listing. The order book holds $15.57K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.05K bought Yes and $64.64K bought No; the largest was a $10.36K buy of No at 81.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Pulser with 10.7K shares; the largest No position is M2sx92kljs42 with 15.3K. Ten wallets hold 78.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 2:44 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 122 points, 24 Jun 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jun 2026 | 65.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 5.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| M2sx92kljs42 | No | 15.26K |
| Xendo1 | No | 13.26K |
| Pulser | Yes | 10.66K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-withdraw-from-beyond-the-litani-river-by-20260607234645733
| groth |
| Yes |
| 8.57K |
| Klutzy-User | No | 6.4K |
| Marco-Rubio | Yes | 4.51K |
| 8dcc906a9b | Yes | 3.31K |
| AlAhmeda | Yes | 2.03K |
| Javier777Milei | No | 2K |
| OMAST | No | 1.97K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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