Analytics
Yes is at 17.5%, down 30 points from 47.5% when the market opened on 17 Sep 2026.
Across the 39 daily closes on record from 17 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49.5% on 19 Sep 2026 and the lowest 17.5% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 19.5%; a month before, 20%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 34% on 20 Sep 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?”.
$135.95 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $303.79, with a 13.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is IFZ with 53 shares; the largest No position is galhammerman with 136.
Trading closes on 1 Apr 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 10:36 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 17 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2026 | 47.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 17.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| galhammerman | No | 135.95 |
| IFZ | Yes | 53.36 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | Yes | 49.99 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-withdraw-from-beyond-the-litani-river-by-20260607234645733
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 27.6 |
| Exemplary-Decisionmaking | Yes | 5 |
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