Analytics
Yes is at 9%, down 3 points from 12% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2025.
Across the 321 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (37 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 27% on 3 Mar 2026 and the lowest 7.5% on 8 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 7.5%; a month before, 11.5%. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points up, to 26.5% on 9 Mar 2026.
$1.03K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $486.86K since listing. The order book holds $47.41K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $827.77 bought Yes and $31.86K bought No; the largest was a $5.63K buy of No at 89.0¢.
The largest Yes position is lao333 with 35.4K shares; the largest No position is MEPP with 14.7K. Ten wallets hold 58.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 8:36 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 321 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 12.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 9.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| lao333 | Yes | 35.36K |
| Dabey | Yes | 29.93K |
| Neglected-Antibody | Yes | 23.48K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-turkey-military-clash-before-2027
| MEPP |
| No |
| 14.72K |
| JUP757 | Yes | 11.04K |
| RolandDrump | No | 10.01K |
| BlindAndDeaf | No | 9.02K |
| ANGGGuess | No | 8.15K |
| nope3050 | No | 7.01K |
| whig | No | 6.3K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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