Analytics
Yes is at 4.7%, down 33 points from 38% when the market opened on 2 Jul 2026.
Across the 116 daily closes on record from 2 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 38% on 2 Jul 2026 and the lowest 3.5% on 5 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.7%; a month before, 11.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 19.5% on 3 Jul 2026.
$20.01 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.85K since listing. The order book holds $367.44, with a 5.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 69 trades, $40.7 bought Yes and $806.41 bought No.
The largest Yes position is LornaPredicts with 265 shares; the largest No position is tms2016 with 543.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:37 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 116 points, 2 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2026 | 38.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 4.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tms2016 | No | 543.11 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 265.19 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 222.86 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will maintain a military presence within the territory of Israel, beyond any presence which may exist at the time of creation of this market, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-announces-military-base-in-israel-in-2026-20260630144955258
| Homely-Front-Thought |
| Yes |
| 43.48 |
| Nbest55 | Yes | 20 |
| Heartfelt-Success | No | 19.75 |
| Kosher-Unique | Yes | 19.55 |
| SLR | No | 12.82 |
| romanew-1-new | Yes | 8.11 |
| 0xblink | No | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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