Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No | buy | 20.51 | $0.054 | $1.11 | Feb 17, 2026 |
 |
| buy |
| 82.12 |
| $0.244 |
| $20 |
| Feb 17, 2026 |
 Will Elon Musk buy OpenAI in 2025?No | sell | 5.2 | $0.973 | $5.06 | Nov 6, 2025 |
 Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?Yes | buy | 59.44 | $0.017 | $1 | Nov 6, 2025 |
 Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.005 | $1 | Nov 6, 2025 |
 Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?Yes | buy | 75 | $0.013 | $1 | Nov 6, 2025 |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No | buy | 48.39 | $0.062 | $3 | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No | buy | 16.13 | $0.062 | $1 | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31?Yes | buy | 1.67K | $0.003 | $5 | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?Yes | buy | 78.95 | $0.038 | $3 | Nov 6, 2025 |
 Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?No | buy | 5.42 | $0.923 | $5 | Jul 9, 2025 |
 Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?No | buy | 9.68 | $0.310 | $3 | Jul 3, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI release an open source model before July?Yes | buy | 31.94 | $0.031 | $1 | Jun 24, 2025 |
 OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?Yes | sell | 8.95 | $0.510 | $4.56 | Jun 24, 2025 |
 Will less than 4 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?Yes | buy | 27.77 | $0.054 | $1.5 | Jun 24, 2025 |
 Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?No | buy | 10.87 | $0.460 | $5 | Jun 18, 2025 |
| Will Elon Musk buy OpenAI in 2025?No | buy | 5.21 | $0.960 | $5 | Jun 14, 2025 |
 Xi Jinping out in 2025?No | buy | 5.49 | $0.910 | $5 | Jun 14, 2025 |
 Iran Nuke in 2025?No | buy | 12.99 | $0.770 | $10 | Jun 14, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?No | buy | 46.15 | $0.065 | $3 | May 27, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?No | buy | 14.71 | $0.068 | $1 | May 20, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?No | buy | 63.42 | $0.079 | $5 | May 18, 2025 |
 Doge ETF approved by July 31?No | buy | 6.33 | $0.790 | $5 | May 9, 2025 |
 Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31?Yes | buy | 23.81 | $0.042 | $1 | May 6, 2025 |
| OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?Yes | buy | 14.93 | $0.670 | $10 | May 6, 2025 |
| OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?Yes | buy | 2.99 | $0.670 | $2 | May 6, 2025 |
 Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?Yes | buy | 333.33 | $0.003 | $1 | May 5, 2025 |
 DeepSeek better than all OpenAI models before June?Yes | buy | 193.12 | $0.026 | $5 | May 4, 2025 |
| DeepSeek better than all OpenAI models before June?Yes | buy | 205.76 | $0.024 | $5 | May 4, 2025 |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31?Yes | buy | 30.71 | $0.033 | $1 | Apr 28, 2025 |
 Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30?Yes | buy | 238.57 | $0.021 | $5 | Apr 28, 2025 |
 Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?No | buy | 17.86 | $0.056 | $1 | Apr 1, 2025 |
 New Pope in 2025?No | sell | 26.31 | $0.460 | $12.1 | Mar 9, 2025 |
| New Pope in 2025?No | buy | 26.32 | $0.190 | $5 | Feb 24, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?Yes | sell | 26.25 | $0.440 | $11.55 | Feb 24, 2025 |
 FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.050 | $1 | Feb 23, 2025 |
 Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | buy | 250 | $0.004 | $1 | Feb 23, 2025 |
 BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election?Yes | sell | 7.69 | $0.420 | $3.23 | Feb 23, 2025 |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | buy | 237.18 | $0.004 | $1 | Feb 22, 2025 |
| BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election?Yes | buy | 7.69 | $0.260 | $2 | Feb 20, 2025 |
 Will an open-source AI model become Top 3 this year?Yes | buy | 7.25 | $0.690 | $5 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | buy | 333.33 | $0.003 | $1 | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | buy | 334 | $0.003 | $1 | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?Yes | buy | 26.25 | $0.381 | $10 | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Will Google have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | buy | 55.56 | $0.018 | $1 | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Will Google have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | buy | 11.04 | $0.014 | $0.15 | Feb 19, 2025 |
 Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | buy | 1.3 | $0.767 | $1 | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?No | buy | 189.58 | $0.053 | $10 | Feb 13, 2025 |
 AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?No | buy | 34.67 | $0.288 | $10 | Feb 7, 2025 |
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?No | buy | 10 | $0.300 | $3 | Feb 7, 2025 |