Analytics
Resolved Yes on 5 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 92.5%. Yes opened at 75.5% on 19 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 168 daily closes on record from 19 Feb 2025 to 5 Aug 2025, the highest close was 97.8% on 10 Jul 2025 and the lowest 59% on 18 Mar 2025. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 89% on 21 Mar 2025. $315.15K traded over the market's life.
94 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 7, 12:50 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 168 points, 19 Feb 2025 – 5 Aug 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Feb 2025 | 75.5% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | 92.5% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly releases the weights of a reasoning model (e.g., o1, o3) or a large language model (LLM) that is as advanced as GPT-3 by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Multimodal models (e.g., DALL·E, vision-language models), speech or audio-based models (e.g., Whisper), specialized AI agents or reinforcement learning models (e.g., robotics, AlphaCode-like systems) or models that otherwise do not meet the listed criteria will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-openai-release-an-open-source-model-in-2025
New to prediction markets?
| nicabi | No | 447.86 |
| fortnitegamer | No | 403.75 |
| abegale | No | 329.93 |
| Telamon | No | 324.65 |
| gggroyper | No | 264.83 |
| xxsdwnc | No | 250 |
| lissartter | No | 227.84 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
