Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 13.5% on 30 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 338 daily closes on record from 30 Jan 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 17% on 15 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7 points down, to 9.5% on 24 Jun 2025. $1.52M traded over the market's life.
364 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 338 points, 30 Jan 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2025 | 13.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Muddy-Yin | Yes | 29.38K |
| EternaLEnVy | Yes | 27.39K |
| gandalf | Yes | 17.17K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-nuke-in-2025
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| TimeTraveler | Yes | 11.1K |
| MegaKong | Yes | 10.05K |
| 0xPolymarketAnon | Yes | 10K |
| Bobbypredictor | Yes | 9.88K |
| Young-Grant | Yes | 3.55K |
| Gonzo2000 | Yes | 3K |
| bigballs69 | Yes | 2.4K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
