Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 69.5% on 24 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 191 daily closes on record from 24 Dec 2024 to 2 Jul 2025, the highest close was 73.5% on 25 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.2% on 2 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 38.5% on 2 Feb 2025. $335.57K traded over the market's life.
84 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 3, 12:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 191 points, 24 Dec 2024 – 2 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Dec 2024 | 69.5% |
| 2 Jul 2025 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| f4b14n | Yes | 20.32K |
| ttaten | Yes | 9.67K |
| benj.amin17 | Yes | 2K |
This is a market on predicting the release date of GPT-5.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/when-will-gpt-5-be-released
| jck | Yes | 1.71K |
| targetedtree | Yes | 1.02K |
| SpookyBoff | Yes | 471.7 |
| jupiter134 | Yes | 450 |
| d8644ca0e7ebb4efce516f6b4635a406 | Yes | 238.1 |
| pemulis212 | Yes | 155.91 |
| jim11 | Yes | 129.55 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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