Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jun 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 43% on 28 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 125 daily closes on record from 28 Jan 2025 to 1 Jun 2025, the highest close was 43% on 28 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 30 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 17.5% on 31 Jan 2025. $51.91K traded over the market's life.
43 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 1:55 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 125 points, 28 Jan 2025 – 1 Jun 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Jan 2025 | 43.0% |
| 1 Jun 2025 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| RememberAmalek | Yes | 1.84K |
| andoo | Yes | 1.19K |
| africsnail | Yes | 1.13K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model by DeepSeek has a higher arena score than all OpenAI models on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) at any point by May 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that the arena score must be higher - if it ties with the best OpenAI arena score it will not count. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/deepseek-better-than-all-openai-models-before-june
| Yes |
| 398.88 |
| Gambastylr | Yes | 251.86 |
| dasgarry | Yes | 144.23 |
| P0ker169 | Yes | 137.96 |
| thien72 | Yes | 121.38 |
| Leonpump | Yes | 58.26 |
| Ivory Tide B5A8 | Yes | 57.78 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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