Analytics
Resolved Yes on 5 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 80.2%. Yes opened at 76% on 1 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 1 Jul 2025 to 5 Aug 2025, the highest close was 96.7% on 10 Jul 2025 and the lowest 47.3% on 16 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 83.9% on 25 Jul 2025. $256.46K traded over the market's life.
126 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 7, 12:49 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 1 Jul 2025 – 5 Aug 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | 76.0% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | 80.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| abegale | No | 7.49K |
| Lizba48 | No | 7.02K |
| AtomSmasher | No | 5.21K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly releases the weights of a reasoning model (e.g., o1, o3) or a large language model (LLM) that is as advanced as GPT-3 by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Multimodal models (e.g., DALL·E, vision-language models), speech or audio-based models (e.g., Whisper), specialized AI agents or reinforcement learning models (e.g., robotics, AlphaCode-like systems) or models that otherwise do not meet the listed criteria will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-openai-release-an-open-source-model-before-september
| No |
| 4.85K |
| Deucekaos | Yes | 3.25K |
| Gethigher | No | 2.89K |
| srpmktwhw | No | 1.22K |
| Gl1tch | No | 1.01K |
| sniffle | No | 811.09 |
| mannam | No | 749.98 |
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