Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.3%. Yes opened at 55% on 19 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 133 daily closes on record from 19 Feb 2025 to 1 Jul 2025, the highest close was 82.5% on 14 Apr 2025 and the lowest 1.1% on 30 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 43 points down, to 25.5% on 16 Mar 2025. $482.17K traded over the market's life.
72 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 8:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 133 points, 19 Feb 2025 – 1 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Feb 2025 | 55.0% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 1.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ttaten | Yes | 3.62K |
| BlackPearl | Yes | 946 |
| f4b14n | Yes | 891.12 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly releases the weights of a reasoning model (e.g., o1, o3) or a large language model (LLM) that is as advanced as GPT-3 by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Multimodal models (e.g., DALL·E, vision-language models), speech or audio-based models (e.g., Whisper), specialized AI agents or reinforcement learning models (e.g., robotics, AlphaCode-like systems) or models that otherwise do not meet the listed criteria will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-openai-release-an-open-source-model-before-july
New to prediction markets?
| Yes |
| 494.67 |
| keilaa | Yes | 230.63 |
| wendyadams | Yes | 168.25 |
| Seb0 | Yes | 132.51 |
| MrGrinche | Yes | 106.93 |
| ml785 | No | 97.04 |
| Vanmeeteren | Yes | 94.39 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
