FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 14, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$735.8K

Resolved

Settled

Mar 14, 2025 UTC

Topic roomWorld elections

Where it stands

Resolved No on 14 Mar 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 32% on 25 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 49 daily closes on record from 25 Jan 2025 to 14 Mar 2025, the highest close was 40.5% on 19 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 25 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 35 points down, to 0.7% on 24 Feb 2025. $735.84K traded over the market's life.

126 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 15, 12:43 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 49 points, 25 Jan 2025 – 14 Mar 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
25 Jan 2025	32.0%
14 Mar 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
TimeTraveler	Yes	13.68K
Cisomate2901	Yes	4.35K
hornedradish	Yes	3.02K

10 of 126 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Free Democratic Party (FDP, Freie Demokratische Partei) wins 5% or more of all party list votes in the next German parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. If voting in the next German parliamentary election does not occur by June 30, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).