Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 9.5% on 11 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 326 daily closes on record from 11 Feb 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 12% on 19 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 29 Dec 2025. $79.81K traded over the market's life.
95 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 326 points, 11 Feb 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Feb 2025 | 9.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| raulcosmin23 | Yes | 6.5K |
| jim11 | No | 697.84 |
| vitaminozone | Yes | 540 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity led by him, enters into an agreement to buy OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announced agreement between Elon Musk and OpenAI will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. An agreement to merge with an entity led by Elon Musk will count toward "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-elon-musk-buy-openai-in-2025
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 262.23 |
| Kkhhjfjdk | Yes | 211.24 |
| acal | Yes | 200 |
| BULLET | Yes | 200 |
| bigbrainUser | Yes | 200 |
| ThePureGenius | Yes | 194.33 |
| Eliavy | Yes | 193.29 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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