Latest trade
Oct 2, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 24, 7:55 PM UTC.
Analytics
SamAlterman is down $12.88K on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 50 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-10-01 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Oct 2, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 24, 7:55 PM UTC.
$208.41 median trade
Its latest 50 trades covered 17 markets; 78.0% were buys. They run from Jul 21, 2026 UTC to Oct 2, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 3.69K | $0.144 | $112.47 | -$418.08 |
 Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?No | buy | 788.47 | $0.444 | $350 | 22d ago |
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-10-01 06:03 UTC
Polymarket public position response
13 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-24 19:55 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
50 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-24 19:55 UTC
polymarket positions
51 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-10-01 06:03 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $1.46K and losing ones cost $7.83K across the latest 50 settled positions. 38% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $278.28 on “Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 12?” (Yes); the largest loss, $3.5K on “Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?” (Yes).
Its most recent trade on record was on 2 Oct 2026. It has traded 108 markets. Its open positions are worth $291.76 across 13 markets.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| No |
| 33.9 |
| $0.590 |
| $32.2 |
| +$12.2 |
 US congress stock trading ban before 2027? | No | 26.23 | $0.762 | $25.03 | +$5.03 |
 SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? | No | 40.61 | $0.492 | $24.97 | +$4.97 |
 Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | No | 22.22 | $0.900 | $21.64 | +$1.64 |
 Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? | No | 31.25 | $0.640 | $21.41 | +$1.41 |
 Eric Adams charged by December 31? | No | 24.69 | $0.810 | $20.99 | +$0.99 |
 Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 589.15 | $0.034 | $8.54 | -$11.46 |
 Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | Yes | 97.4 | $0.205 | $7.31 | -$12.69 |
 Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? | Yes | 60.61 | $0.330 | $6.06 | -$13.94 |
 Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? | Yes | 42.49 | $0.471 | $4.67 | -$15.33 |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 104.75 | $0.160 | $3.3 | -$13.46 |
 Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | Yes | 62.73 | $0.319 | $3.17 | -$16.83 |
| buy |
| 57.14 |
| $0.350 |
| $20 |
| Sep 16, 2026 UTC |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?No | buy | 294.12 | $0.340 | $100 | Sep 16, 2026 UTC |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 227.27 | $0.220 | $50 | Sep 13, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 1.14K | $0.220 | $250 | Sep 13, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 1.14K | $0.220 | $250 | Sep 13, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 1.14K | $0.220 | $250 | Sep 13, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 1.14K | $0.220 | $250 | Sep 13, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 1.14K | $0.220 | $250 | Sep 13, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 1.14K | $0.220 | $250 | Sep 13, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 1.14K | $0.220 | $250 | Sep 13, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 1.14K | $0.220 | $250 | Sep 13, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 1.14K | $0.220 | $250 | Sep 13, 2026 UTC |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No | sell | 5.43K | $0.059 | $322.82 | Sep 13, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 804.61K | $0.003 | $2.41K | Sep 13, 2026 UTC |
| Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.83% in September?Yes | buy | 97.2 | $0.610 | $59.29 | Sep 12, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 8.11K | $0.004 | $32.45 | Sep 5, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 651.91K | $0.004 | $2.61K | Sep 5, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 89.3K | $0.002 | $178.6 | Sep 5, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 610.7K | $0.002 | $1.22K | Sep 5, 2026 UTC |
 Fed rate hike in 2026?No | sell | 9.53K | $0.280 | $2.67K | Sep 5, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | sell | 3.49K | $0.490 | $1.71K | Sep 5, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 2.85K | $0.690 | $1.97K | Aug 24, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 2.22K | $0.009 | $20 | Aug 19, 2026 UTC |
| Fed rate hike in 2026?No | buy | 9.53K | $0.511 | $4.87K | Aug 19, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 14.26K | $0.021 | $300 | Aug 12, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 102.72K | $0.020 | $2.05K | Aug 12, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 125K | $0.006 | $750 | Aug 12, 2026 UTC |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No | buy | 6.72K | $0.149 | $1K | Aug 12, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 14.28K | $0.015 | $216.83 | Aug 11, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 33.81K | $0.007 | $250 | Aug 11, 2026 UTC |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No | buy | 1.36K | $0.148 | $200 | Aug 11, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 530.58 | $0.550 | $291.82 | Aug 5, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 10K | $0.018 | $180 | Aug 5, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 10K | $0.010 | $100 | Aug 5, 2026 UTC |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 104.75 | $0.160 | $16.76 | Aug 2, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 104.44 | $0.450 | $47 | Jul 31, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 1.09K | $0.011 | $12 | Jul 31, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 1.1K | $0.023 | $25 | Jul 31, 2026 UTC |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No | buy | 1.05K | $0.107 | $112 | Jul 31, 2026 UTC |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?No | sell | 98.73 | $0.900 | $88.86 | Jul 31, 2026 UTC |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | sell | 91.62 | $0.760 | $69.63 | Jul 31, 2026 UTC |
 Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 24.63 | $0.900 | $22.16 | Jul 31, 2026 UTC |
| Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?No | sell | 22.91 | $0.902 | $20.66 | Jul 31, 2026 UTC |
 Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?No | sell | 22.47 | $0.918 | $20.62 | Jul 31, 2026 UTC |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?No | buy | 98.73 | $0.790 | $78 | Jul 30, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?No | buy | 78.25 | $0.749 | $58.61 | Jul 24, 2026 UTC |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?No | buy | 58.7 | $0.733 | $43 | Jul 21, 2026 UTC |
 Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No | sell | 294.03 | $0.075 | $22.13 | Jul 21, 2026 UTC |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No | sell | 281.14 | $0.088 | $24.78 | Jul 21, 2026 UTC |
Placed on fixed scales: no Radar board ranking was cached on this server when the profile was read, so no archetype is claimed. Not drawn for this wallet: 2 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.