Analytics
Yes is at 10%, down 22 points from 31.5% when the market opened on 15 Jan 2026.
Across the 275 daily closes on record from 15 Jan 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (13 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 44.5% on 1 May 2026 and the lowest 9.5% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 10.5%; a month before, 12.5%. Its largest one-day move was 23 points up, to 44.5% on 1 May 2026.
$20.58 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $59.69K since listing. The order book holds $11.74K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.54K bought Yes and $11.35K bought No; the largest was a $1.59K sell of No at 79.3¢.
The largest Yes position is PaddyAlpha with 1.7K shares; the largest No position is Aragorn-II with 1.8K. Ten wallets hold 72.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 6:52 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 275 points, 15 Jan 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2026 | 31.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 10.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Aragorn-II | No | 1.81K |
| PaddyAlpha | Yes | 1.72K |
| Odin.Valhal | No | 1.67K |
Donald Trump showed the middle finger to an individual heckling him at a Minnesota Ford plant on January 13 (see: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/ford-plant-trump-middle-finger-flip). This market will resolve to “Yes” if photo or video evidence shows Donald Trump giving the middle finger to anybody else by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying video or photo must show Donald Trump raising his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in the gesture commonly referred to as “flipping the bird”. Evidence must show Trump making the gesture in a context that could reasonably indicate it is directed at a person or group, even if it does not indicate so definitively. Past instances such as Donald Trump showing his middle finger at a Black History Month event (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-middle-finger/4654155) or while speaking to female astronauts (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-flips-off-women-astronauts/4823553) would both count. Photo or video evidence of Trump extending his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in a context which in no way indicates that the gesture was intentional or directed at an individual or group will not count. AI-generated images or video will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo or video evidence of Donald Trump raising his middle finger.
| BamseOgKylling |
| No |
| 1.1K |
| Forch | Yes | 844 |
| Friday | Yes | 507.03 |
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 425 |
| HULK | No | 400 |
| IlIlllIIIIllllIlIlllllIlIIIllllI | Yes | 382.96 |
| KevinMatte9 | Yes | 253.24 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-flip-the-bird-again-in-2026
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
