Analytics
Yes is at 9.5%, down 29 points from 38.5% when the market opened on 27 Dec 2025.
Across the 279 daily closes on record from 27 Dec 2025 to 27 Oct 2026 (27 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 38.5% on 27 Dec 2025 and the lowest 2.6% on 19 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.2%; a month before, 8.8%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 30.7% on 4 Sep 2026.
$46.38 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $183.78K since listing. The order book holds $13.95K, with a 1.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $857.82 bought Yes and $6.27K bought No; the largest was a $1.11K buy of No at 89.0¢.
The largest Yes position is LlamaLoco0000 with 16.9K shares; the largest No position is MEPP with 14.2K. Ten wallets hold 77.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 4:12 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 279 points, 27 Dec 2025 – 27 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Dec 2025 | 38.5% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 9.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LlamaLoco0000 | Yes | 16.89K |
| MEPP | No | 14.17K |
| inventive | No | 7K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with the U.S. but do not formally recognize the country as a sovereign state will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-recognize-somaliland-before-2027
| AngryRhino |
| No |
| 5K |
| Tenebrus7 | No | 4.47K |
| CoffeeLover | Yes | 4.21K |
| ELICHOU | No | 3.26K |
| ChetterHummin | Yes | 2.34K |
| .chumpo | Yes | 1.65K |
| Amber Quasar 71B3 | Yes | 1.55K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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