Latest trade
Oct 23, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 25, 9:50 PM UTC.
Analytics
Surendipity-Guesser is down $1.74K on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 50 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-08-16 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Oct 23, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 25, 9:50 PM UTC.
$12.08 median trade
Its latest 50 trades covered 36 markets; 80.0% were buys. They run from Aug 25, 2026 UTC to Oct 23, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 38 | $0.640 | $33.63 | +$9.31 |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Israel election happen as scheduled?Yes | buy | 8.61 | $0.929 | $8 | 2d ago |
 |
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-08-16 17:11 UTC
Polymarket public position response
27 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-25 21:50 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
50 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-25 21:50 UTC
polymarket positions
51 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-08-16 17:11 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $2.37K and losing ones cost $3.92K across the latest 50 settled positions. 42% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $267.89 on “Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?” (Yes); the largest loss, $830.43 on “Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?” (Yes).
Its most recent trade on record was on 23 Oct 2026. It has traded 165 markets. Its open positions are worth $434.66 across 27 markets.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| No |
| 35 |
| $0.880 |
| $31.33 |
| +$0.53 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | No | 33 | $0.910 | $30.62 | +$0.59 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | No | 36.14 | $0.830 | $30.18 | +$0.18 |
 Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 34.88 | $0.860 | $29.83 | -$0.17 |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | No | 32.35 | $0.930 | $29.6 | -$0.49 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | 19 | $0.887 | $18.61 | +$1.75 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 20 | $0.630 | $18.5 | +$5.9 |
 Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | No | 16 | $0.750 | $15.69 | +$3.69 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | No | 17 | $0.720 | $14.2 | +$1.96 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 17 | $0.740 | $14.03 | +$1.45 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? | No | 21 | $0.590 | $13.76 | +$1.37 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | No | 13.19 | $0.910 | $13.03 | +$1.03 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | No | 13 | $0.938 | $12.47 | +$0.28 |
 Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? | No | 13.48 | $0.890 | $12.47 | +$0.47 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | No | 13.1 | $0.916 | $12.41 | +$0.41 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 15.01 | $0.830 | $12.08 | -$0.37 |
 Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 12.53 | $0.958 | $12.08 | +$0.08 |
 Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 12.63 | $0.950 | $12.03 | +$0.03 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? | No | 25 | $0.480 | $11.88 | -$0.13 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | Yes | 15 | $0.830 | $11.33 | -$1.13 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | Yes | 12.77 | $0.940 | $11.04 | -$0.96 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 13 | $0.930 | $9.56 | -$2.53 |
 Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 29 | $0.416 | $8.24 | -$3.83 |
| Will Israel election happen as scheduled? | Yes | 8.61 | $0.929 | $8.1 | +$0.1 |
| buy |
| 12.77 |
| $0.940 |
| $12 |
| 2d ago |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Yes | sell | 18 | $0.600 | $10.8 | 2d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No | buy | 19.35 | $0.930 | $18 | 21d ago |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No | buy | 36.14 | $0.830 | $30 | 21d ago |
 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes | buy | 32.43 | $0.370 | $12 | 21d ago |
| Iran leadership change by December 31?No | buy | 34.88 | $0.860 | $30 | Sep 22, 2026 UTC |
| Trump out as President before 2027?No | buy | 12.63 | $0.950 | $12 | Sep 22, 2026 UTC |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No | buy | 12.53 | $0.958 | $12 | Sep 22, 2026 UTC |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?No | buy | 13.19 | $0.910 | $12 | Sep 22, 2026 UTC |
| Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?No | buy | 13.48 | $0.890 | $12 | Sep 22, 2026 UTC |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Yes | sell | 25 | $0.510 | $12.75 | Sep 10, 2026 UTC |
 Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aurora Gaming PH vs Omega Esports (BO3) - MPL Philippines Regular SeasonAurora Gaming PH | buy | 24.11 | $0.498 | $12 | Sep 6, 2026 UTC |
| Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - MLBB Continental Championships Regular SeasonTeam Spirit | buy | 37.56 | $0.799 | $30 | Sep 6, 2026 UTC |
| Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs Alter Ego (BO3) - MPL Indonesia Regular SeasonBigetron by Vitality | buy | 25.14 | $0.716 | $18 | Sep 6, 2026 UTC |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 41 | $0.407 | $16.69 | Sep 6, 2026 UTC |
| Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid PH vs Twisted Minds PH (BO3) - MPL Philippines Regular SeasonTeam Liquid PH | buy | 33.71 | $0.890 | $30 | Sep 6, 2026 UTC |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?No | buy | 13.1 | $0.916 | $12 | Sep 6, 2026 UTC |
| Mobile Legends Bang Bang: RRQ Hoshi vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - MPL Indonesia Regular SeasonNatus Vincere | buy | 43.75 | $0.686 | $30 | Sep 5, 2026 UTC |
| Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Team Vamos (BO3) - MPL Malaysia Regular SeasonSelangor Red Giants | buy | 41.1 | $0.730 | $30 | Sep 4, 2026 UTC |
| Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs ONIC (BO3) - MPL Indonesia Regular SeasonONIC | buy | 37.04 | $0.810 | $30 | Sep 4, 2026 UTC |
 Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 60 | $0.001 | $0.06 | Sep 4, 2026 UTC |
 Will the next Mythos-Class model be released on September 1, 2026?No | buy | 770 | $0.073 | $56.1 | Sep 1, 2026 UTC |
| Will the next Mythos-Class model be released on September 1, 2026?No | buy | 16 | $0.670 | $10.72 | Sep 1, 2026 UTC |
| Will the next Mythos-Class model be released on September 1, 2026?No | buy | 10 | $0.670 | $6.7 | Sep 1, 2026 UTC |
| Will the next Mythos-Class model be released on September 1, 2026?No | buy | 20 | $0.670 | $13.4 | Sep 1, 2026 UTC |
| Will the next Mythos-Class model be released on September 1, 2026?No | buy | 40.81 | $0.735 | $30 | Sep 1, 2026 UTC |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No | buy | 20 | $0.630 | $12.6 | Aug 31, 2026 UTC |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Yes | buy | 25 | $0.490 | $12.25 | Aug 31, 2026 UTC |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?No | buy | 13 | $0.938 | $12.19 | Aug 30, 2026 UTC |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Yes | sell | 109 | $0.106 | $11.55 | Aug 30, 2026 UTC |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?Yes | sell | 182 | $0.062 | $11.28 | Aug 30, 2026 UTC |
 LoL: FURIA Esports vs Leviatan Esports (BO3) - CBLOL Regular SeasonFURIA Esports | buy | 12.26 | $0.979 | $12 | Aug 30, 2026 UTC |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?No | sell | 14 | $0.973 | $13.62 | Aug 30, 2026 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.910 | $9.1 | Aug 30, 2026 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 3.77 | $0.900 | $3.39 | Aug 30, 2026 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31?Yes | buy | 32 | $0.940 | $30.08 | Aug 30, 2026 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 2026?Yes | buy | 14 | $0.870 | $12.18 | Aug 28, 2026 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 28, 2026?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.999 | $9.99 | Aug 28, 2026 UTC |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Yes | buy | 109 | $0.111 | $12.1 | Aug 28, 2026 UTC |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?Yes | buy | 182 | $0.066 | $12.01 | Aug 28, 2026 UTC |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?No | sell | 14 | $0.890 | $12.46 | Aug 28, 2026 UTC |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?No | sell | 13 | $0.934 | $12.14 | Aug 28, 2026 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?Yes | buy | 2K | $0.001 | $2 | Aug 27, 2026 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.900 | $9 | Aug 27, 2026 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 27, 2026?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.910 | $4.55 | Aug 27, 2026 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 27, 2026?Yes | buy | 9 | $0.910 | $8.19 | Aug 27, 2026 UTC |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?No | buy | 33.68 | $0.880 | $29.64 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 26, 2026?Yes | buy | 14 | $0.920 | $12.88 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes | buy | 29 | $0.416 | $12.06 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
Placed on fixed scales: no Radar board ranking was cached on this server when the profile was read, so no archetype is claimed. Not drawn for this wallet: 2 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.