Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.9%. Yes opened at 28.5% on 8 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 55 daily closes on record from 8 Aug 2026 to 1 Oct 2026, the highest close was 28.5% on 8 Aug 2026 and the lowest 1.6% on 28 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 15.5% on 9 Aug 2026. $499.68K traded over the market's life.
155 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 6:03 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 55 points, 8 Aug 2026 – 1 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2026 | 28.5% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 2.1% |
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466
| Fearless-Misnomer | Yes | 8.35K |
| denizz | Yes | 7.01K |
| wbxxx | Yes | 6.94K |
| JasonPunos | Yes | 4.44K |
| aenews2 | Yes | 3.09K |
| AlphaBetaGamma2357 | Yes | 3K |
| groth | Yes | 2.5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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