Analytics
Yes is at 12%, down 61 points from 72.5% when the market opened on 8 Jul 2026.
Across the 105 daily closes on record from 8 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 72.5% on 8 Jul 2026 and the lowest 12% on 21 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 12%; a month before, 27%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 46% on 5 Aug 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?”.
$5.38K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $325.84K since listing. The order book holds $26.57K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $4.55K bought Yes and $13.37K bought No; the largest was a $2.72K sell of No at 85.3¢.
The largest Yes position is citra with 12.8K shares; the largest No position is Udonsan with 22.9K. Ten wallets hold 64.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 105 points, 8 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2026 | 72.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 12.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Udonsan | No | 22.88K |
| LeftieFTW | No | 17.72K |
| Sticky-Closing | No | 17.01K |
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466
| citra |
| Yes |
| 12.81K |
| Detailed-Lip | Yes | 12.49K |
| denizz | No | 9.76K |
| tetrase | Yes | 8.36K |
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | No | 8.06K |
| DOGWIFHAT | Yes | 7.14K |
| vortl | Yes | 6.19K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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