Analytics
Yes is at 1.8%, down 62 points from 63.5% when the market opened on 2 Jul 2026.
Across the 114 daily closes on record from 2 Jul 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 73.5% on 4 Jul 2026 and the lowest 3.8% on 28 Oct 2026. The current quote, 1.8%, is below every close in that window; the latest close was 3.8% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5.5%; a month before, 10.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 54.5% on 5 Jul 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?”.
$4.69K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $704.69K since listing. The order book holds $32.41K, with a 0.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $103.72 bought Yes and $19.03K bought No; the largest was a $6.31K buy of No at 97.9¢.
The largest Yes position is citra with 32.1K shares; the largest No position is Kevindoto with 20K. Ten wallets hold 56.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 12:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 114 points, 2 Jul 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2026 | 63.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 3.8% |
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466
| spamburglar |
| No |
| 18.36K |
| Detailed-Lip | Yes | 17.2K |
| kdsads | No | 16.7K |
| denizz | Yes | 15.59K |
| Gmoney16 | Yes | 13.56K |
| vortl | Yes | 9.35K |
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | No | 7.82K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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