Analytics
Surendipity-Guesser is down $1.74K on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 50 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-08-16 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 38 | $0.640 | $33.63 | +$9.31 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
This view does not establish the wallet’s complete trading history.
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-08-16 17:11 UTC
Polymarket public position response
27 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-26 06:31 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
Recent fills unavailable
2026-10-26 06:31 UTC
polymarket positions
51 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-08-16 17:11 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $2.37K and losing ones cost $3.92K across the latest 50 settled positions. 42% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $267.89 on “Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?” (Yes); the largest loss, $830.43 on “Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?” (Yes).
It has traded 165 markets. Its open positions are worth $437.14 across 27 markets.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| No |
| 35 |
| $0.880 |
| $31.68 |
| +$0.88 |
 Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | No | 33 | $0.910 | $30.57 | +$0.54 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | No | 36.14 | $0.830 | $30.36 | +$0.36 |
 Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 34.88 | $0.860 | $29.83 | -$0.17 |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | No | 32.35 | $0.930 | $29.6 | -$0.49 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 20 | $0.630 | $18.9 | +$6.3 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | 19 | $0.887 | $18.59 | +$1.73 |
 Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | No | 16 | $0.750 | $15.35 | +$3.35 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 17 | $0.740 | $14.2 | +$1.62 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | No | 17 | $0.720 | $14.03 | +$1.79 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? | No | 21 | $0.590 | $13.97 | +$1.58 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | No | 13.19 | $0.910 | $13.01 | +$1.01 |
 Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? | No | 13.48 | $0.890 | $12.47 | +$0.47 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | No | 13 | $0.938 | $12.47 | +$0.27 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | No | 13.1 | $0.916 | $12.41 | +$0.41 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 15.01 | $0.830 | $12.23 | -$0.22 |
 Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 12.53 | $0.958 | $11.99 | -$0.01 |
 Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 12.63 | $0.950 | $11.98 | -$0.02 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? | No | 25 | $0.480 | $11.88 | -$0.13 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | Yes | 15 | $0.830 | $11.63 | -$0.83 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | Yes | 12.77 | $0.940 | $11.04 | -$0.96 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 13 | $0.930 | $10.66 | -$1.43 |
 Will Israel election happen as scheduled? | Yes | 8.61 | $0.929 | $8.28 | +$0.28 |
 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 32.43 | $0.370 | $8.27 | -$3.73 |
4 of 6 axes ranked against the 121 wallets on the Radar board (crypto positions observed 2026-09-20); the others stay on fixed scales, as each axis says. Not drawn for this wallet: 2 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.
