Analytics
Yes is at 3.8%, down 33 points from 36.5% when the market opened on 5 Jan 2026.
The high was 36.5% on 5 Jan 2026 and the low 2.5% on 9 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 4%; a month ago, 4.3%. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 10.5% on 6 Jan 2026.
It is one of 28 markets under “Who will Trump pardon before 2027?”.
$10.58K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $12.24K, with a 0.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 136 trades, $172.15 bought Yes and $4.29K bought No.
The largest Yes position is herewe with 2.2K shares; the largest No position is 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 with 588. Ten wallets hold 92.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 79 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 15, 3:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 273 points, 5 Jan 2026 – 15 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2026 | 36.5% |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 3.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| herewe | Yes | 2.19K |
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | No | 588.38 |
| bear-bees | No | 500 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027
15 more markets, none above 3.7%.
| Solar Raven A90C | No | 463.32 |
| KingZeManel | No | 328.24 |
| Mica1 | No | 272.58 |
| enrico-vasaio | No | 200 |
| AJSV | Yes | 190.31 |
| thecaricature | Yes | 144.42 |
| Steveohm | No | 136.74 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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