What is the “Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Iran ceasefire continues through...?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on May 21, 2026. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($1.34M) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 114 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 57.6% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated May 24, 6:30 AM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iran-ceasefire-continue-through-may-21) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? | Polymarket odds & analytics

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Delayed

Analytics

Predictions Analytics

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? | Polymarket odds & analytics | Vultax

Market referencewill-the-iran-ceasefire-continue-through-may-21Updated May 24, 2026

Closed

Scheduled close May 21, 2026

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Observed Yes 100¢Observed No 0¢

24h Volume

$1.3M

Scheduled close

May 21, 2026

Overview Prices Holders Trades

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Aug 13, 2026

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

May 24, 2026

This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Closed

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

100.0%

The venue reports this market closed, but no resolved outcome is inferred.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

114

Wallets

114

Top 10 share

58%

Yes / No shares

33.4 / 180.63K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

Loaded notional

Reported market positionsProvider-reported rows from the displayed market-position observation.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Remorseful-Raffle	No	24.14K	0.5%	$24.14K	May 22, 11:00 PM
Neglected-Testament	No	19.64K	0.8%	$19.64K

Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Iran ceasefire continues through...?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on May 21, 2026. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($1.34M) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Top holders by valueReturned holders ranked by current holding value. Profit and win rate are unavailable for this sample.

Trader	Current holding value
XUEIN	$25.54
ifdjfd	$5.09
newssik	$1.53
wugabo	$1.24
Remorseful-Raffle	$0
Neglected-Testament	$0
Gloomy-Material	$0
Reasonable-Citron	$0
agggr	$0
Fearless-Freon	$0
Pastel-Buffalo	$0
MaxiChibrax	$0